Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$246.71

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.5¢

-21% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares619,764

Combined PnL+$251.18

No3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,168

Combined PnL-$4.47

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$247.2	43% 552-726 (1278)
balthazar	Noavg 99.3¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$2.36	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 99.5¢	$552.23	$550.84	-$1.39	97% 2573-66 (2639)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.5¢	$214.06	$212.96	-$0.72	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 0.6¢	$167.29	$97.96	-$3.82	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$5.45	$13.8	+$8.35	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.78	$0.2	-$0.58	— 0-3 (3)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.06	$0.09	+$0.03	66% 413-210 (623)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$247.2

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

balthazar

Invested

$3,376.85

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$2.36

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

BunCaCham

Invested

$552.23

Value

$550.84

PnL

-$1.39

Record

97%

2573-66 (2639)

poposub

Invested

$214.06

Value

$212.96

PnL

-$0.72

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$167.29

Value

$97.96

PnL

-$3.82

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$13.8

PnL

+$8.35

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$0.58

Record

—

0-3 (3)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6107.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

6207.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.