Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Texas?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.1K
$-3.3K
0.7¢ → 0.1¢
-78% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $900 | $-3.4K | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.9¢ | $214.82 | $213.04 | -$1.78 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $17.53 | $14.31 | +$12.76 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $5 | $7.5 | +$2.5 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
BU BunCaChamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $1.6 | $2.4 | +$0.8 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.17 | $0.03 | -$0.14 | — 0-3 (3) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$900
PnL
$-3.4K
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$214.82
Value
$213.04
PnL
-$1.78
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$17.53
Value
$14.31
PnL
+$12.76
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.8
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
Invested
$0.17
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.14
Record
—
0-3 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.