Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$7.7K
$2.1K
0.7¢ → 0.4¢
-50% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $6.3K | +$2.0K | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.1K | $536.25 | +$8.99 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.1¢ | $460.63 | $463.04 | +$2.41 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.4¢ | $266.46 | $265.98 | -$0.49 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $163.39 | $166.63 | +$48.68 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 LolakisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $1.64 | $2.05 | +$0.41 | 61% 655-414 (1069) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$6.3K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
Invested
$1,106.26
Value
$536.25
PnL
+$8.99
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
balthazarInvested
$460.63
Value
$463.04
PnL
+$2.41
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$266.46
Value
$265.98
PnL
-$0.49
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$163.39
Value
$166.63
PnL
+$48.68
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
LolakisCTR<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.41
Record
61%
655-414 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.