Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Texas?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$4.5K
$-4.8K
0.1¢ → 0.3¢
+192% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $59.41 | $4.5K | $-4.8K | 43% 572-748 (1320) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $26.9 | $40.35 | +$13.45 | 41% 1988-2806 (4794) |
11 11122CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $15.24 | $18.5 | +$3.26 | 43% 1401-1820 (3221) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.32 | $7.5 | -$9.82 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
Invested
$59.41
Value
$4.5K
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
43%
572-748 (1320)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$26.9
Value
$40.35
PnL
+$13.45
Record
41%
1988-2806 (4794)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$18.5
PnL
+$3.26
Record
43%
1401-1820 (3221)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$17.32
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$9.82
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.