Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

0.7¢ → 0.3¢

-64% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares615,049

Combined PnL$-2.7K

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,606

Combined PnL+$5.58

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$1.5K	$-2.8K	43% 552-726 (1278)
balthazar	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$0.59	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
PO poposub	Noavg 99.8¢	$267.54	$265.97	-$1.58	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
MI milkteaboba	Noavg 95.3¢	$162	$169.66	+$7.75	69% 38-17 (55)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$35.94	$37.49	+$10.47	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.4	$0.08	-$0.33	— 0-3 (3)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

balthazar

Invested

$1,167.66

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$0.59

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

poposub

Invested

$267.54

Value

$265.97

PnL

-$1.58

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

milkteaboba

Invested

$162

Value

$169.66

PnL

+$7.75

Record

69%

38-17 (55)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.94

Value

$37.49

PnL

+$10.47

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.33

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

62h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7596.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

7696.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.