Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Maine, Ohio, and Texas?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$6.6K
-$933.74
0.7¢ → 0.5¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $3.3K | -$952.8 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$0.93 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
BU BunCaCham | Noavg 99.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$4.68 | 97% 2573-66 (2639) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.5¢ | $182.15 | $180.97 | -$0.75 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $122.72 | $107.88 | +$16.51 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.57 | $0.11 | -$0.46 | — 0-3 (3) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0 | $0.02 | +$0 | 20% 312-1272 (1584) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$952.8
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
balthazarInvested
$1,852.75
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$0.93
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$1,106.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$4.68
Record
97%
2573-66 (2639)
Invested
$182.15
Value
$180.97
PnL
-$0.75
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$122.72
Value
$107.88
PnL
+$16.51
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.46
Record
—
0-3 (3)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
312-1272 (1584)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.