Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 99¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$5.0K

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 99.2¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares645,671

Combined PnL+$5.0K

No4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,250

Combined PnL+$4.01

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$9.3K	+$5.0K	43% 552-726 (1278)
balthazar	Noavg 98.4¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$1.9	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
PO poposub	Noavg 98.3¢	$263.57	$266.03	+$2.46	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yes	$164.32	$164.32	+$0	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.3¢	$220.02	$155.89	-$64.13	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$67.79	$95.52	+$27.73	66% 413-210 (623)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$55	$56.57	+$15.07	61% 655-414 (1069)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$49.92	$49.72	-$0.21	52% 2459-2280 (4739)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$31.65	$31.5	-$0.14	52% 4965-4595 (9560)
SB sbimbgCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.05	$1.5	-$0.55	70% 3149-1361 (4510)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.14	$0.38	+$0.25	— 0-3 (3)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

balthazar

Invested

$4,823.58

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.9

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

poposub

Invested

$263.57

Value

$266.03

PnL

+$2.46

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.32

Value

$164.32

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$220.02

Value

$155.89

PnL

-$64.13

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.79

Value

$95.52

PnL

+$27.73

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55

Value

$56.57

PnL

+$15.07

Record

61%

655-414 (1069)

merod<$100

Invested

$49.92

Value

$49.72

PnL

-$0.21

Record

52%

2459-2280 (4739)

korda77<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$0.14

Record

52%

4965-4595 (9560)

sbimbgCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.55

Record

70%

3149-1361 (4510)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.25

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.