Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$13.7K
$855.62
99.3¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $5.1K | +$847.2 | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $4.4K | $4.4K | -$15.45 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
 themagicofcinema | Noavg 99.1¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | +$1.9 | 66% 413-210 (623) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.4¢ | $266.44 | $265.97 | -$0.46 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $141.34 | $148.43 | +$8.94 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $12 | $25.5 | +$13.5 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$847.2
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
balthazarInvested
$4,367.59
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$15.45
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
themagicofcinemaInvested
$3,765.7
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$1.9
Record
66%
413-210 (623)
Invested
$266.44
Value
$265.97
PnL
-$0.46
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
Invested
$141.34
Value
$148.43
PnL
+$8.94
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$25.5
PnL
+$13.5
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.