Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$13.3K

Combined PnL

$3.6K

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 99¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares625,263

Combined PnL+$3.6K

No4 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,250

Combined PnL-$0.34

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$4.3K	$7.8K	+$3.5K	43% 552-726 (1278)
balthazar	Noavg 98.7¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	-$1.65	61% 21089-13426 (34515)
PO poposub	Noavg 98.7¢	$264.5	$265.97	+$1.47	45% 2053-2462 (4515)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$138.63	$128.77	-$9.87	52% 1139-1031 (2170)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 1.1¢	$102	$117	+$15	42% 1963-2767 (4730)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$49.94	$49.84	-$0.1	52% 2459-2280 (4739)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$77.5	$33.22	-$0.92	61% 655-414 (1069)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$31.65	$31.58	-$0.06	52% 4965-4595 (9560)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$7.92	$10.3	+$2.38	66% 413-210 (623)
20 20260601CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.61	$0.57	-$0.04	53% 90-79 (169)

BreakTheBankCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,252.8

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

43%

552-726 (1278)

balthazar

Invested

$4,839.42

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$1.65

Record

61%

21089-13426 (34515)

poposub

Invested

$264.5

Value

$265.97

PnL

+$1.47

Record

45%

2053-2462 (4515)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.63

Value

$128.77

PnL

-$9.87

Record

52%

1139-1031 (2170)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$102

Value

$117

PnL

+$15

Record

42%

1963-2767 (4730)

merod<$100

Invested

$49.94

Value

$49.84

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

2459-2280 (4739)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.5

Value

$33.22

PnL

-$0.92

Record

61%

655-414 (1069)

korda77<$100

Invested

$31.65

Value

$31.58

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

4965-4595 (9560)

themagicofcinemaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.92

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$2.38

Record

66%

413-210 (623)

20260601CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

90-79 (169)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.