Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$13.8K
$4.4K
99.3¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BR BreakTheBankCTR | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $4.3K | $8.7K | +$4.4K | 43% 552-726 (1278) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.3¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$33.47 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
PO poposub | Noavg 99.2¢ | $265.95 | $265.97 | +$0.02 | 45% 2053-2462 (4515) |
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 98.5¢ | $207.55 | $218.98 | +$11.42 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $107.76 | $130.5 | +$22.74 | 52% 1139-1031 (2170) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $49.79 | $49.77 | -$0.03 | 52% 2459-2280 (4739) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $31.55 | $31.54 | -$0.02 | 52% 4965-4595 (9560) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $0.25 | $0.61 | +$0.36 | 66% 413-210 (623) |
Invested
$4,252.8
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$4.4K
Record
43%
552-726 (1278)
balthazarInvested
$4,450.03
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$33.47
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
Invested
$265.95
Value
$265.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
45%
2053-2462 (4515)
TimeTravelerInvested
$207.55
Value
$218.98
PnL
+$11.42
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
Invested
$107.76
Value
$130.5
PnL
+$22.74
Record
52%
1139-1031 (2170)
Invested
$49.79
Value
$49.77
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
2459-2280 (4739)
Invested
$31.55
Value
$31.54
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
4965-4595 (9560)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.61
PnL
+$0.36
Record
66%
413-210 (623)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.