1win FDV above $100M one day after launch?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$64.85
72.9¢ → 79¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luck00004 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$23.85 | 48% 32-34 (66) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 67.9¢ | $237.5 | $276.5 | +$39 | 68% 335-158 (493) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $101 | $101 | +$0 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79¢ | $79 | $79 | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22¢ | $22 | $22 | +$0 | |
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $77 | $79 | +$2 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
Invested
$1,055.8
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$23.85
Record
48%
32-34 (66)
alanhuttonInvested
$237.5
Value
$276.5
PnL
+$39
Record
68%
335-158 (493)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$101
Value
$101
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
Both legs:
Invested
$77
Value
$79
PnL
+$2
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.