XRP Up or Down - October 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 100¢ · $95 held · ended Oct 26

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$95.39

Combined PnL

$72.67

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$69.36

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$67.96

Up3 traders

Total Value$26.03

Total Shares29

Combined PnL+$4.71

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$1.39	$68.86	+$67.47	51% 17725-17052 (34777)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 60¢	$6.41	$16.44	+$10.03	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$10.57	$5.94	-$4.63	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 60¢	$4.34	$3.65	-$0.69	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.01	$0.5	+$0.49	68% 94633-44122 (138755)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.39

Value

$68.86

PnL

+$67.47

Record

51%

17725-17052 (34777)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$16.44

PnL

+$10.03

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$10.57

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$4.63

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.69

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.49

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.