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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - October 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 54%

Total Value

$95.56

Combined PnL

-$80.71

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares228

Combined PnL-$130.61

Down6 traders

Total Value$95.56

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$49.9

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 37.6¢	$49.84	—	-$49.84	60% 10605-7189 (17794)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$64.18	—	-$64.18	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 61¢	$9.15	$15	+$5.85	55% 42809-34660 (77469)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 12.5¢	$1.82	—	-$1.82	63% 19526-11360 (30886)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Downavg 13.7¢	$3.6	$26.39	+$22.79	53% 15155-13652 (28807)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 61¢	$8.92	$14.62	+$5.7	56% 40908-32497 (73405)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 60¢	$6.24	—	-$6.24	84% 61854-12050 (73904)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$14.19	$22.82	+$8.63	58% 16353-11988 (28341)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 85¢	$7.45	—	-$7.45	67% 13816-6882 (20698)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$0.98	—	-$0.98	68% 75669-35734 (111403)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.1	—	-$0.1	59% 15498-10585 (26083)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$7.5	$11.38	+$3.88	62% 42694-25786 (68480)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 43¢	$2.3	$5.35	+$3.05	55% 39952-33285 (73237)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$49.84

Value

—

PnL

-$49.84

Record

60%

10605-7189 (17794)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$64.18

Value

—

PnL

-$64.18

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

Invested

$9.15

Value

$15

PnL

+$5.85

Record

55%

42809-34660 (77469)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

—

PnL

-$1.82

Record

63%

19526-11360 (30886)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Invested

$3.6

Value

$26.39

PnL

+$22.79

Record

53%

15155-13652 (28807)

Invested

$8.92

Value

$14.62

PnL

+$5.7

Record

56%

40908-32497 (73405)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$6.24

Value

—

PnL

-$6.24

Record

84%

61854-12050 (73904)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$14.19

Value

$22.82

PnL

+$8.63

Record

58%

16353-11988 (28341)

Invested

$7.45

Value

—

PnL

-$7.45

Record

67%

13816-6882 (20698)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

—

PnL

-$0.98

Record

68%

75669-35734 (111403)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

59%

15498-10585 (26083)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$11.38

PnL

+$3.88

Record

62%

42694-25786 (68480)

Invested

$2.3

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$3.05

Record

55%

39952-33285 (73237)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe1632b22...3ff44e

Slug

xrp-updown-5m-1792978800

Traders in this Market

wowitsamazing

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

mo-money

Down — $15

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $26.39

bosona

Down — $14.62

antsaslyku

Up — $0

MayorMamdani

Down — $22.82

aaa221

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $0

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