XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 98¢ · $5 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Up
2
Up 50%
$5.04
-$1.18
Research grade
NeutralUp at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.9 | +$0.05 | 63% 19263-11278 (30541) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $15.48 | $0.14 | -$1.23 | 67% 13654-6785 (20439) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.