Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 75%
$99.23
-$30.82
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85.6¢ | $64.45 | $75.23 | +$10.78 | 58% 16208-11821 (28029) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $33.11 | — | -$33.11 | 62% 40677-24900 (65577) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 6.9¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 84% 60134-11869 (72003) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $2.64 | — | -$2.64 | 52% 14387-13149 (27536) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $21.36 | $24 | +$2.64 | 69% 68803-31273 (100076) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 61% 13851-8673 (22524) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 33.6¢ | $3.87 | — | -$3.87 | 63% 19088-11211 (30299) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $0.52 | — | -$0.52 | 76% 24072-7599 (31671) |
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$64.45
Value
$75.23
PnL
+$10.78
Record
58%
16208-11821 (28029)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$33.11
Value
—
PnL
-$33.11
Record
62%
40677-24900 (65577)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
84%
60134-11869 (72003)
Invested
$2.64
Value
—
PnL
-$2.64
Record
52%
14387-13149 (27536)
Invested
$21.36
Value
$24
PnL
+$2.64
Record
69%
68803-31273 (100076)
Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
61%
13851-8673 (22524)
Invested
$3.87
Value
—
PnL
-$3.87
Record
63%
19088-11211 (30299)
Invested
$0.52
Value
—
PnL
-$0.52
Record
76%
24072-7599 (31671)
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