Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Up 63%
$51.45
-$22.68
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $10.5 | $30 | +$19.5 | 77% 41364-12330 (53694) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $29.38 | — | -$29.38 | 56% 31413-24251 (55664) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $14.94 | $11.45 | -$3.49 | 58% 6469-4604 (11073) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $6.92 | — | -$6.92 | 75% 22486-7474 (29960) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $5.4 | $10 | +$4.6 | 58% 15987-11596 (27583) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 81% 51120-11727 (62847) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $1.41 | — | -$1.41 | 58% 10472-7684 (18156) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $0.57 | — | -$0.57 | 57% 12593-9662 (22255) |
Invested
$10.5
Value
$30
PnL
+$19.5
Record
77%
41364-12330 (53694)
Invested
$29.38
Value
—
PnL
-$29.38
Record
56%
31413-24251 (55664)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$11.45
PnL
-$3.49
Record
58%
6469-4604 (11073)
Invested
$6.92
Value
—
PnL
-$6.92
Record
75%
22486-7474 (29960)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.6
Record
58%
15987-11596 (27583)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
81%
51120-11727 (62847)
Invested
$1.41
Value
—
PnL
-$1.41
Record
58%
10472-7684 (18156)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.57
Value
—
PnL
-$0.57
Record
57%
12593-9662 (22255)
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