Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 75%
3 arb excluded
$439.58
$9.29
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $85.22 | $108.15 | +$22.93 | 56% 31413-24251 (55664) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 56.9¢ | $61.48 | $108.15 | +$46.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $23.73 | — | -$23.73 | |
 MayorMamdaniARB<$100 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $66.93 | $81.33 | +$14.4 | 58% 15987-11596 (27583) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.7¢ | $55.06 | $81.33 | +$26.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.7¢ | $11.87 | — | -$11.87 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 96.9¢ | $63.16 | $47.45 | -$14.96 | 77% 41364-12330 (53694) |
AS asdaefefARB<$100 | Downavg 93.2¢ | $77.65 | $56.26 | -$21.39 | 75% 22486-7474 (29960) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 67.9¢ | $25.2 | — | -$25.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 93.2¢ | $52.45 | $56.26 | +$3.81 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 63.3¢ | $30.36 | $47.95 | +$17.59 | 58% 6469-4604 (11073) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $28.94 | $41.25 | +$12.31 | 62% 38229-23726 (61955) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 83.9¢ | $25.36 | $25.44 | +$0.08 | 61% 13569-8539 (22108) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $23.31 | $21.75 | -$1.56 | 62% 18051-11002 (29053) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $9.92 | — | -$9.92 | 81% 51120-11727 (62847) |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $4 | $10 | +$6 | 56% 33384-26147 (59531) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $0.25 | — | -$0.25 | 53% 11852-10386 (22238) |
Invested
$85.22
Value
$108.15
PnL
+$22.93
Record
56%
31413-24251 (55664)
Both legs:
MayorMamdaniARB<$100Invested
$66.93
Value
$81.33
PnL
+$14.4
Record
58%
15987-11596 (27583)
Both legs:
Invested
$63.16
Value
$47.45
PnL
-$14.96
Record
77%
41364-12330 (53694)
Invested
$77.65
Value
$56.26
PnL
-$21.39
Record
75%
22486-7474 (29960)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.36
Value
$47.95
PnL
+$17.59
Record
58%
6469-4604 (11073)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$28.94
Value
$41.25
PnL
+$12.31
Record
62%
38229-23726 (61955)
Invested
$25.36
Value
$25.44
PnL
+$0.08
Record
61%
13569-8539 (22108)
Invested
$23.31
Value
$21.75
PnL
-$1.56
Record
62%
18051-11002 (29053)
Invested
$9.92
Value
—
PnL
-$9.92
Record
81%
51120-11727 (62847)
Invested
$4
Value
$10
PnL
+$6
Record
56%
33384-26147 (59531)
Invested
$0.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.25
Record
53%
11852-10386 (22238)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
MayorMamdani
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $47.45
asdaefef
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $47.95
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $41.25
asidjasiodja
Down — $25.44
dvasdkasodk
Down — $21.75
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0
almach
Down — $10