Back to Markets
DownUpDown
UpandDownSyndrome<$100DownUp
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - October 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Up 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$159.61
Combined PnL
-$2.66
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares30
Combined PnL-$11.15
Down2 traders
Total Value$32.61
Total Shares33
Combined PnL+$8.49
Up — 50%Down — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 43.9¢ | $87.5 | $127 | +$39.5 | 90% 64816-7021 (71837) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 43.9¢ | $55.74 | $127 | +$71.26 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33¢ | $31.76 | — | -$31.76 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $20 | +$8.2 | 46% 351-406 (757) |
UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 97.7¢ | $12.32 | $12.61 | +$0.29 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $2.15 | — | -$2.15 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100Invested
$87.5
Value
$127
PnL
+$39.5
Record
90%
64816-7021 (71837)
Both legs:
Down$55.7443.9¢+$71.26
Up$31.7633¢-$31.76
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
0X
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100Invested
$11.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.2
Record
46%
351-406 (757)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.32
Value
$12.61
PnL
+$0.29
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$2.15
Value
—
PnL
-$2.15
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x7f762b94...16a5b3
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1793004300