XRP Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 96¢ · $98 held · ended Oct 25

Up96¢Down4¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$98.25

Combined PnL

-$32.56

Research grade

NeutralUp at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up96%

Down4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$78.14

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$9.33

Down2 traders

Total Value$20.11

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$23.24

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$90.42	$64.8	-$25.62	62% 40770-24941 (65711)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 92¢	$10.86	$16.08	+$5.22	63% 19263-11278 (30541)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 21.3¢	$6.61	$13.34	+$16.3	67% 13654-6785 (20439)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100	Downavg 32.3¢	$32.48	$4.03	-$28.46	46% 343-396 (739)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$90.42

Value

$64.8

PnL

-$25.62

Record

62%

40770-24941 (65711)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.86

Value

$16.08

PnL

+$5.22

Record

63%

19263-11278 (30541)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$6.61

Value

$13.34

PnL

+$16.3

Record

67%

13654-6785 (20439)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.48

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$28.46

Record

46%

343-396 (739)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.