Guangzhou Open: Anastasia Zakharova vs Magda Linette

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Magda Linette (50%) · Magda Linette at 79¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 3

Anastasia Zakharova22¢Magda Linette78¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Magda Linette

Consensus Traders

Magda Linette 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.6K

Combined PnL

$825.88

Smart Money Entry

63.6¢ → 78.5¢

+23% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMagda Linette at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magda Linette

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anastasia Zakharova22%

Magda Linette79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magda Linette8 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares34,478

Combined PnL+$253.31

Anastasia Zakharova8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,815

Combined PnL+$572.57

Magda Linette — 50%Anastasia Zakharova — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Magda Linetteavg 63.7¢	$21.2K	$21.5K	+$267.5	59% 43578-30037 (73615)
RN1CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 34¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$559.09	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Magda Linetteavg 57.9¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$25.74	53% 559-502 (1061)
└ Magda Linette leg	Magda Linetteavg 57.9¢	$743.46	$1.0K	+$261.49
└ Anastasia Zakharova leg	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 39.1¢	$584.73	$321.76	-$287.23
TH thestingsnake	Magda Linetteavg 62.7¢	$711.65	$606.53	-$8.59	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 42.4¢	$594	$595	+$1	51% 1154-1090 (2244)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 34.4¢	$593.16	$594.31	+$1.15	52% 13438-12293 (25731)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 48¢	$239.45	$260.54	+$21.09	62% 13564-8385 (21949)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Magda Linetteavg 58¢	$77	$62.4	-$14.6	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 59.8¢	$57.3	$52.3	-$5	58% 18257-13418 (31675)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 32¢	$49.6	$48.83	-$0.77	50% 3633-3602 (7235)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Magda Linetteavg 58¢	$32.85	$34.49	+$1.64	62% 1682-1049 (2731)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 44¢	$30	$28.63	-$1.37	67% 22976-11372 (34348)
VeryLucky888	Magda Linetteavg 51¢	$255.96	$17.46	+$10.01	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 37.3¢	$16.8	$14.18	-$2.62	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
HRTrading<$100	Magda Linetteavg 57¢	$14.82	$12.22	-$2.6	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Magda Linetteavg 49¢	$5.37	$5.15	-$0.22	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
tradecraft<$100	Magda Linetteavg 62¢	$3.1	$3.28	+$0.18	52% 5787-5407 (11194)

UpTheBlues

Magda Linette

Invested

$21,246.15

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$267.5

Record

59%

43578-30037 (73615)

RN1CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$1,857.17

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$559.09

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$1,843.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$25.74

Record

53%

559-502 (1061)

Both legs:

Magda Linette$743.4657.9¢+$261.49

Anastasia Zakharova$584.7339.1¢-$287.23

thestingsnake

Magda Linette

Invested

$711.65

Value

$606.53

PnL

-$8.59

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$594

Value

$595

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

1154-1090 (2244)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$593.16

Value

$594.31

PnL

+$1.15

Record

52%

13438-12293 (25731)

LilybaeumCTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$239.45

Value

$260.54

PnL

+$21.09

Record

62%

13564-8385 (21949)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$77

Value

$62.4

PnL

-$14.6

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$57.3

Value

$52.3

PnL

-$5

Record

58%

18257-13418 (31675)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$49.6

Value

$48.83

PnL

-$0.77

Record

50%

3633-3602 (7235)

0x1111111111<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$32.85

Value

$34.49

PnL

+$1.64

Record

62%

1682-1049 (2731)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$30

Value

$28.63

PnL

-$1.37

Record

67%

22976-11372 (34348)

VeryLucky888

Magda Linette

Invested

$255.96

Value

$17.46

PnL

+$10.01

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

efntrickCTR<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$16.8

Value

$14.18

PnL

-$2.62

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

HRTrading<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$14.82

Value

$12.22

PnL

-$2.6

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$5.37

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.22

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

tradecraft<$100

Magda Linette

Invested

$3.1

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.18

Record

52%

5787-5407 (11194)

Research grade

NeutralMagda Linette at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Magda Linette

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magda Linette wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.