Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Anastasia Zakharova, while the market favors Teodora Kostovic (57%). 13 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Teodora Kostovic

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Anastasia Zakharova (59%) · Anastasia Zakharova at 43¢ · $122K held · ends Nov 1

Anastasia Zakharova43¢Teodora Kostovic57¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anastasia Zakharova

Consensus Traders

Anastasia Zakharova 59%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$121.7K

Combined PnL

$-4.0K

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 43¢

-14% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnastasia Zakharova at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anastasia Zakharova

13 of 22 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Teodora Kostovic 57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Anastasia Zakharova43%

Teodora Kostovic57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Teodora Kostovic9 traders

Total Value$38.5K

Total Shares75,988

Combined PnL+$280.96

Anastasia Zakharova13 traders

Total Value$38.2K

Total Shares84,166

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Teodora Kostovic — 41%Anastasia Zakharova — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 57.7¢	$36.4K	$32.1K	$-4.3K	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 57.7¢	$28.6K	$24.6K	$-4.1K
└ Anastasia Zakharova leg	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 51.8¢	$7.8K	$7.6K	-$199.07
RN1	Teodora Kostovicavg 45.8¢	$29.8K	$28.8K	-$975.55	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
KK KkunnCTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 50.8¢	$29.3K	$27.7K	$-1.6K	43% 195-255 (450)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 58.7¢	$8.8K	$8.0K	-$819.69	53% 12096-10862 (22958)
└ Anastasia Zakharova leg	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 58.7¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$62.04
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 52.1¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$881.73
tradecraft	Teodora Kostovicavg 47.9¢	$4.1K	$5.2K	+$1.1K	52% 5490-5090 (10580)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 45.4¢	$7.2K	$4.3K	$-2.8K	39% 444-686 (1130)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 51.1¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$351.95	54% 100-86 (186)
CH chiefphiARB<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 52.6¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$58.5	54% 58-49 (107)
└ Anastasia Zakharova leg	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 52.6¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$166.5
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$225
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Teodora Kostovicavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$76.59	53% 2356-2096 (4452)
TH thestingsnake	Teodora Kostovicavg 50¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	+$54.2	60% 3516-2387 (5903)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 57.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$12.62	55% 11759-9662 (21421)
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 57.2¢	$975.31	$946.33	-$28.99
└ Anastasia Zakharova leg	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 43¢	$469.25	$485.62	+$16.37
0X 0x1111111111CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 70.8¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$268.52	28% 269-677 (946)
NA NatoAlfista	Teodora Kostovicavg 47¢	$438.98	$406.29	-$32.69	65% 2717-1462 (4179)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Teodora Kostovicavg 49.9¢	$351.41	$401.24	+$49.83	63% 22445-13258 (35703)
GO gotozer0CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 57¢	$369.81	$319.82	-$14.99	64% 207-115 (322)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 51.8¢	$775.15	$306.57	+$49.95	66% 465-235 (700)
GH ghostorder	Teodora Kostovicavg 38¢	$209	$233.75	+$24.75	68% 3918-1875 (5793)
GG GGLPLCTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 49.6¢	$222.29	$226.53	+$4.24	50% 607-603 (1210)
HRTrading	Teodora Kostovicavg 48.7¢	$195.95	$220.35	+$24.4	58% 1363-997 (2360)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 40.2¢	$137.02	$149.61	+$12.6	48% 3439-3707 (7146)
└ Anastasia Zakharova leg	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 40.2¢	$71.38	$75.44	+$4.06
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 50.9¢	$65.64	$74.18	+$8.53
OL olivereaCTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 58¢	$150	$148.71	-$1.29	58% 264-188 (452)
IL IlliascaCTR	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 28¢	$100	$98.21	-$1.79	64% 219-121 (340)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 57.7¢	$86.49	$86.24	-$0.25	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 40.3¢	$70.53	$74.4	+$3.87	65% 12541-6659 (19200)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 45.3¢	$70	$67.32	-$2.68	71% 17316-6997 (24313)
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 45.3¢	$40	$35.73	-$4.27
└ Anastasia Zakharova leg	Anastasia Zakharovaavg 56.5¢	$30	$31.6	+$1.6

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$36,385.54

Value

$32.1K

PnL

$-4.3K

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

Both legs:

Teodora Kostovic$28,631.3757.7¢$-4.1K

Anastasia Zakharova$7,754.1751.8¢-$199.07

RN1

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$29,764.57

Value

$28.8K

PnL

-$975.55

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

KkunnCTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$29,306.68

Value

$27.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

43%

195-255 (450)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$8,785.43

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$819.69

Record

53%

12096-10862 (22958)

Both legs:

Anastasia Zakharova$4,811.9458.7¢+$62.04

Teodora Kostovic$3,973.4952.1¢-$881.73

tradecraft

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$4,127.21

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

52%

5490-5090 (10580)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$7,150

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

39%

444-686 (1130)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$3,313.22

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$351.95

Record

54%

100-86 (186)

chiefphiARB<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$3,300.02

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$58.5

Record

54%

58-49 (107)

Both legs:

Anastasia Zakharova$1,800.0152.6¢+$166.5

Teodora Kostovic$1,50050¢-$225

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$1,544.32

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$76.59

Record

53%

2356-2096 (4452)

thestingsnake

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$2,308.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$54.2

Record

60%

3516-2387 (5903)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$1,444.57

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.62

Record

55%

11759-9662 (21421)

Both legs:

Teodora Kostovic$975.3157.2¢-$28.99

Anastasia Zakharova$469.2543¢+$16.37

0x1111111111CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$1,565.22

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$268.52

Record

28%

269-677 (946)

NatoAlfista

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$438.98

Value

$406.29

PnL

-$32.69

Record

65%

2717-1462 (4179)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$351.41

Value

$401.24

PnL

+$49.83

Record

63%

22445-13258 (35703)

gotozer0CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$369.81

Value

$319.82

PnL

-$14.99

Record

64%

207-115 (322)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18CTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$775.15

Value

$306.57

PnL

+$49.95

Record

66%

465-235 (700)

ghostorder

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$209

Value

$233.75

PnL

+$24.75

Record

68%

3918-1875 (5793)

GGLPLCTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$222.29

Value

$226.53

PnL

+$4.24

Record

50%

607-603 (1210)

HRTrading

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$195.95

Value

$220.35

PnL

+$24.4

Record

58%

1363-997 (2360)

efntrickARB<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$137.02

Value

$149.61

PnL

+$12.6

Record

48%

3439-3707 (7146)

Both legs:

Anastasia Zakharova$71.3840.2¢+$4.06

Teodora Kostovic$65.6450.9¢+$8.53

olivereaCTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$150

Value

$148.71

PnL

-$1.29

Record

58%

264-188 (452)

IlliascaCTR

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$100

Value

$98.21

PnL

-$1.79

Record

64%

219-121 (340)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Anastasia Zakharova

Invested

$86.49

Value

$86.24

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

Lilybaeum<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$70.53

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$3.87

Record

65%

12541-6659 (19200)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$70

Value

$67.32

PnL

-$2.68

Record

71%

17316-6997 (24313)

Both legs:

Teodora Kostovic$4045.3¢-$4.27

Anastasia Zakharova$3056.5¢+$1.6

Research grade

NeutralAnastasia Zakharova at 43%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Anastasia Zakharova

13 of 22 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Teodora Kostovic 57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anastasia Zakharova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.