Courmayeur: Lisa Zaar vs Ayla Aksu

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ayla Aksu (82%) · Ayla Aksu at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2

Lisa Zaar3¢Ayla Aksu97¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ayla Aksu

Consensus Traders

Ayla Aksu 82%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$4.34

Smart Money Entry

75.2¢ → 97.2¢

+29% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAyla Aksu at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ayla Aksu

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lisa Zaar3%

Ayla Aksu97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ayla Aksu9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL+$91.34

Lisa Zaar2 traders

Total Value$149.97

Total Shares1,923

Combined PnL-$95.69

Ayla Aksu — 82%Lisa Zaar — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Lisa Zaaravg 29.6¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$657.58	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
└ Ayla Aksu leg	Ayla Aksuavg 79.7¢	$721.17	$817.49	+$96.32
└ Lisa Zaar leg	Lisa Zaaravg 29.6¢	$1.1K	$367.33	-$753.9
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Ayla Aksuavg 65¢	$338.2	$475.6	+$137.4	53% 13181-11666 (24847)
TH thestingsnake	Ayla Aksuavg 92.8¢	$1.4K	$324.39	-$72.87	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
1L 1lovejump	Ayla Aksuavg 79.9¢	$738.7	$227.75	+$26.01	52% 544-494 (1038)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Lisa Zaaravg 27.7¢	$81.06	$78.64	-$2.42	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
EF efntrick<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 71.3¢	$73.1	$74.5	+$1.4	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
RN1CTR	Lisa Zaaravg 7.3¢	$164.59	$71.33	-$93.26	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 61¢	$44.86	$43.61	-$1.25	62% 1670-1044 (2714)
0xheavy888<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 67¢	$36.85	$33.55	-$3.3	56% 6695-5367 (12062)
HRTrading<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 93.3¢	$20.62	$21.42	+$0.8	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 57¢	$6.63	$10.18	+$3.55	60% 27626-18599 (46225)
VeryLucky888<$100	Ayla Aksuavg 66¢	$5.09	$4.7	-$0.39	58% 37579-27344 (64923)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Lisa Zaar

Invested

$1,842.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$657.58

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

Both legs:

Ayla Aksu$721.1779.7¢+$96.32

Lisa Zaar$1,121.2329.6¢-$753.9

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$338.2

Value

$475.6

PnL

+$137.4

Record

53%

13181-11666 (24847)

thestingsnake

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$1,429.59

Value

$324.39

PnL

-$72.87

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

1lovejump

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$738.7

Value

$227.75

PnL

+$26.01

Record

52%

544-494 (1038)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Lisa Zaar

Invested

$81.06

Value

$78.64

PnL

-$2.42

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

efntrick<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$73.1

Value

$74.5

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

RN1CTR

Lisa Zaar

Invested

$164.59

Value

$71.33

PnL

-$93.26

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

0x1111111111<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$44.86

Value

$43.61

PnL

-$1.25

Record

62%

1670-1044 (2714)

0xheavy888<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$36.85

Value

$33.55

PnL

-$3.3

Record

56%

6695-5367 (12062)

HRTrading<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$20.62

Value

$21.42

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$6.63

Value

$10.18

PnL

+$3.55

Record

60%

27626-18599 (46225)

VeryLucky888<$100

Ayla Aksu

Invested

$5.09

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0.39

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

Research grade

NeutralAyla Aksu at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ayla Aksu

9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ayla Aksu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.