Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Dayana Yastremska, while the market favors Katie Volynets (56%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guangzhou Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Katie Volynets

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Dayana Yastremska (50%) · Dayana Yastremska at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Dayana Yastremska45¢Katie Volynets55¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dayana Yastremska

Consensus Traders

Dayana Yastremska 50%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$4.96

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 44.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDayana Yastremska at 45%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dayana Yastremska

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Katie Volynets 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dayana Yastremska45%

Katie Volynets56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Katie Volynets3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,349

Combined PnL-$8.89

Dayana Yastremska3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,183

Combined PnL+$13.85

Katie Volynets — 50%Dayana Yastremska — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Katie Volynetsavg 54.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$8.94	53% 148-133 (281)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR	Dayana Yastremskaavg 46¢	$795.9	$804.55	-$8.64	51% 834-789 (1623)
RN1CTR	Dayana Yastremskaavg 45¢	$653.7	$668.23	+$14.53	54% 55279-47296 (102575)
VeryLucky888CTR	Dayana Yastremskaavg 45¢	$659.23	$455	+$7.97	58% 40340-29132 (69472)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Katie Volynetsavg 54¢	$310	$307.13	+$2.87	65% 104-56 (160)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Katie Volynetsavg 54¢	$304.36	$301.54	-$2.82	53% 296-261 (557)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Katie Volynets

Invested

$1,213.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$8.94

Record

53%

148-133 (281)

GamblingOdysseyCTR

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$795.9

Value

$804.55

PnL

-$8.64

Record

51%

834-789 (1623)

RN1CTR

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$653.7

Value

$668.23

PnL

+$14.53

Record

54%

55279-47296 (102575)

VeryLucky888CTR

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$659.23

Value

$455

PnL

+$7.97

Record

58%

40340-29132 (69472)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Katie Volynets

Invested

$310

Value

$307.13

PnL

+$2.87

Record

65%

104-56 (160)

oxe78sh4w98

Katie Volynets

Invested

$304.36

Value

$301.54

PnL

-$2.82

Record

53%

296-261 (557)

Research grade

NeutralDayana Yastremska at 45%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Dayana Yastremska

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Katie Volynets 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dayana Yastremska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.