Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Dayana Yastremska vs Emerson Jones

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Dayana Yastremska (69%) · Dayana Yastremska at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 1

Dayana Yastremska>99¢Emerson Jones<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dayana Yastremska

Consensus Traders

Dayana Yastremska 69%

Total Value

$18.2K

Combined PnL

-$338.91

Smart Money Entry

88.2¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDayana Yastremska at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dayana Yastremska

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dayana Yastremska100%

Emerson Jones0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dayana Yastremska9 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares18,976

Combined PnL-$275.72

Emerson Jones4 traders

Total Value$545.63

Total Shares1,903

Combined PnL-$63.19

Dayana Yastremska — 69%Emerson Jones — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Dayana Yastremska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Emerson Jones) and the top 1000 (5 on Dayana Yastremska) disagree here.

whaleDayana Yastremska 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDayana Yastremska 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrEmerson Jones 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedEmerson Jones 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Dayana Yastremska 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Dayana Yastremskaavg 91.3¢	$5.4K	$5.1K	-$282.35	68% 30725-14776 (45501)
HO HomeRunHazard	Dayana Yastremskaavg 92.3¢	$4.1K	$4.3K	+$145.6	55% 11733-9634 (21367)
LO looppau	Dayana Yastremskaavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 6691-34 (6725)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Dayana Yastremskaavg 81.7¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$320	51% 955-914 (1869)
RN1	Dayana Yastremskaavg 90.7¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$67.9	55% 43048-35397 (78445)
tradecraft	Dayana Yastremskaavg 60¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$348.8	52% 5483-5086 (10569)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Emerson Jonesavg 30¢	$430.25	$415.55	-$14.71	53% 12075-10844 (22919)
LS LSS1	Dayana Yastremskaavg 82¢	$408.36	$353.58	-$54.78	72% 1271-506 (1777)
VeryLucky888CTR	Emerson Jonesavg 40¢	$200	$108.15	-$39.75	58% 31334-22653 (53987)
TH thestingsnake	Dayana Yastremskaavg 91.9¢	$146.71	$66.6	-$51.44	60% 3512-2387 (5899)
EF efntrick<$100	Dayana Yastremskaavg 80.9¢	$34.3	$39.4	+$5.1	48% 3435-3706 (7141)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Emerson Jonesavg 40¢	$22.67	$16.44	-$6.23	54% 13658-11474 (25132)
US User7429CTR<$100	Emerson Jonesavg 8¢	$8	$5.5	-$2.5	57% 5831-4371 (10202)

UpTheBlues

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$5,372.8

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$282.35

Record

68%

30725-14776 (45501)

HomeRunHazard

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$4,129.42

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$145.6

Record

55%

11733-9634 (21367)

looppau

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

6691-34 (6725)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$2,450

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$320

Record

51%

955-914 (1869)

RN1

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$1,686.18

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$67.9

Record

55%

43048-35397 (78445)

tradecraft

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$1,119.87

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$348.8

Record

52%

5483-5086 (10569)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Emerson Jones

Invested

$430.25

Value

$415.55

PnL

-$14.71

Record

53%

12075-10844 (22919)

LSS1

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$408.36

Value

$353.58

PnL

-$54.78

Record

72%

1271-506 (1777)

VeryLucky888CTR

Emerson Jones

Invested

$200

Value

$108.15

PnL

-$39.75

Record

58%

31334-22653 (53987)

thestingsnake

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$146.71

Value

$66.6

PnL

-$51.44

Record

60%

3512-2387 (5899)

efntrick<$100

Dayana Yastremska

Invested

$34.3

Value

$39.4

PnL

+$5.1

Record

48%

3435-3706 (7141)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Emerson Jones

Invested

$22.67

Value

$16.44

PnL

-$6.23

Record

54%

13658-11474 (25132)

User7429CTR<$100

Emerson Jones

Invested

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

5831-4371 (10202)

Research grade

NeutralDayana Yastremska at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Dayana Yastremska

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Dayana Yastremska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Emerson Jones) and the top 1000 (5 on Dayana Yastremska) disagree here.

whaleDayana Yastremska 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpDayana Yastremska 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrEmerson Jones 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedEmerson Jones 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Dayana Yastremska 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dayana Yastremska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.