Guangzhou Open: Simona Waltert vs Jil Teichmann

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jil Teichmann (47%) · Jil Teichmann at 52¢ · $64K held · ends Nov 3

Simona Waltert49¢Jil Teichmann51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jil Teichmann

Consensus Traders

Jil Teichmann 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$64.0K

Combined PnL

$4.0K

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 51.5¢

+6% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralJil Teichmann at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jil Teichmann

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Simona Waltert49%

Jil Teichmann52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jil Teichmann8 traders

Total Value$40.2K

Total Shares77,100

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Simona Waltert9 traders

Total Value$21.1K

Total Shares40,346

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Jil Teichmann — 47%Simona Waltert — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Jil Teichmannavg 48.9¢	$27.4K	$30.0K	+$2.6K	48% 98-106 (204)
RN1CTR	Simona Waltertavg 50.9¢	$12.5K	$13.4K	+$900.68	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Jil Teichmannavg 47¢	$9.4K	$9.6K	+$200	54% 556-474 (1030)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Simona Waltertavg 51¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$441.02	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Simona Waltertavg 54.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$18.09	59% 43578-30037 (73615)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Simona Waltertavg 47.2¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$281.5	51% 1154-1090 (2244)
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 47.2¢	$897	$883.5	-$13.5
└ Jil Teichmann leg	Jil Teichmannavg 24¢	$240	$535	+$295
CH chiefphiCTR	Simona Waltertavg 47¢	$1.0K	$927.92	-$74.66	57% 80-61 (141)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Simona Waltertavg 63.4¢	$1.8K	$774.22	-$7.06	53% 559-502 (1061)
└ Jil Teichmann leg	Jil Teichmannavg 31.5¢	$284.68	$410.74	+$201.81
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 63.4¢	$422.6	$363.48	-$208.87
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Simona Waltertavg 50.1¢	$744.47	$690.96	-$53.5	52% 13438-12293 (25731)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Simona Waltertavg 54.4¢	$1.4K	$472.29	-$162.27	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
└ Simona Waltert leg	Simona Waltertavg 54.4¢	$318.64	$319.24	-$95.65
└ Jil Teichmann leg	Jil Teichmannavg 46.1¢	$154.94	$153.05	-$66.62
VeryLucky888CTR	Simona Waltertavg 51¢	$421.14	$429.37	+$8.24	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Jil Teichmannavg 57.1¢	$200	$197.93	-$2.07	65% 104-56 (160)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Jil Teichmannavg 58¢	$196.61	$191.52	-$5.08	53% 291-257 (548)
tradecraft	Jil Teichmannavg 53¢	$108.63	$115.8	+$7.17	52% 5787-5407 (11194)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Jil Teichmannavg 49¢	$61.25	$60	-$1.25	62% 1682-1049 (2731)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Jil Teichmannavg 63¢	$37.44	$30.75	-$6.69	58% 18257-13418 (31675)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Simona Waltertavg 53.4¢	$29.53	$28.61	-$0.92	67% 22976-11372 (34348)
LS LSS1CTR<$100	Simona Waltertavg 74¢	$22.2	$22.95	+$0.75	72% 1522-596 (2118)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Simona Waltertavg 57.7¢	$25.95	$22.95	-$3	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Jil Teichmannavg 48¢	$4.81	$4.81	-$0	62% 13564-8385 (21949)

robustmst

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$27,400

Value

$30.0K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

48%

98-106 (204)

RN1CTR

Simona Waltert

Invested

$12,521.86

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$900.68

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$9,400

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$200

Record

54%

556-474 (1030)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Simona Waltert

Invested

$2,805.08

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$441.02

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

UpTheBluesCTR

Simona Waltert

Invested

$2,370.74

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$18.09

Record

59%

43578-30037 (73615)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$1,137

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$281.5

Record

51%

1154-1090 (2244)

Both legs:

Simona Waltert$89747.2¢-$13.5

Jil Teichmann$24024¢+$295

chiefphiCTR

Simona Waltert

Invested

$1,002.59

Value

$927.92

PnL

-$74.66

Record

57%

80-61 (141)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$1,813.83

Value

$774.22

PnL

-$7.06

Record

53%

559-502 (1061)

Both legs:

Jil Teichmann$284.6831.5¢+$201.81

Simona Waltert$422.663.4¢-$208.87

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Simona Waltert

Invested

$744.47

Value

$690.96

PnL

-$53.5

Record

52%

13438-12293 (25731)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$1,408.92

Value

$472.29

PnL

-$162.27

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

Both legs:

Simona Waltert$318.6454.4¢-$95.65

Jil Teichmann$154.9446.1¢-$66.62

VeryLucky888CTR

Simona Waltert

Invested

$421.14

Value

$429.37

PnL

+$8.24

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$200

Value

$197.93

PnL

-$2.07

Record

65%

104-56 (160)

oxe78sh4w98

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$196.61

Value

$191.52

PnL

-$5.08

Record

53%

291-257 (548)

tradecraft

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$108.63

Value

$115.8

PnL

+$7.17

Record

52%

5787-5407 (11194)

0x1111111111<$100

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$61.25

Value

$60

PnL

-$1.25

Record

62%

1682-1049 (2731)

BillBenter2026<$100

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$37.44

Value

$30.75

PnL

-$6.69

Record

58%

18257-13418 (31675)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$29.53

Value

$28.61

PnL

-$0.92

Record

67%

22976-11372 (34348)

LSS1CTR<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$22.2

Value

$22.95

PnL

+$0.75

Record

72%

1522-596 (2118)

efntrickCTR<$100

Simona Waltert

Invested

$25.95

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

Lilybaeum<$100

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

13564-8385 (21949)

Research grade

NeutralJil Teichmann at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Jil Teichmann

8 of 17 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jil Teichmann wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.