Pan Pacific Open: Xinyu Wang vs Alycia Parks

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Alycia Parks (54%) · Alycia Parks at 71¢ · $64K held · ends Nov 2

Xinyu Wang30¢Alycia Parks70¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alycia Parks

Consensus Traders

Alycia Parks 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$63.8K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 70.5¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlycia Parks at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alycia Parks

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Xinyu Wang30%

Alycia Parks71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alycia Parks7 traders

Total Value$58.2K

Total Shares76,463

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Xinyu Wang6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares14,871

Combined PnL-$161.79

Alycia Parks — 54%Xinyu Wang — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK Kkunn	Alycia Parksavg 74¢	$30.4K	$31.0K	+$605.6	43% 199-265 (464)
UP UpTheBlues	Alycia Parksavg 53.1¢	$9.4K	$12.6K	+$3.2K	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
HO HomeRunHazard	Alycia Parksavg 59¢	$9.0K	$10.7K	+$1.8K	55% 12853-10588 (23441)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Alycia Parksavg 63¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$315	51% 1067-1026 (2093)
RN1CTR	Xinyu Wangavg 25¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$188.93	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
VeryLucky888CTR	Xinyu Wangavg 63.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$29.93	58% 34591-25199 (59790)
TH thestingsnake	Alycia Parksavg 47.9¢	$842.67	$1.1K	+$280.99	60% 3676-2486 (6162)
GH ghostorderCTR	Xinyu Wangavg 25¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$20.63	68% 4026-1937 (5963)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Alycia Parksavg 65.5¢	$1.7K	$706.15	-$213.72	52% 527-488 (1015)
└ Alycia Parks leg	Alycia Parksavg 65.5¢	$443.67	$504.96	+$105.87
└ Xinyu Wang leg	Xinyu Wangavg 46.5¢	$366.6	$201.19	-$319.59
NO Notradecopy	Alycia Parksavg 36¢	$484.22	$511.12	+$6.73	60% 3131-2064 (5195)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Xinyu Wangavg 45¢	$223.76	$308.29	+$84.53	62% 24131-14569 (38700)
0xheavy888CTR	Xinyu Wangavg 65¢	$160.03	$152.64	+$3.69	55% 6546-5254 (11800)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Xinyu Wangavg 42.7¢	$51.55	$41.03	-$10.52	48% 3516-3772 (7288)
SC SchruteBucks<$100	Alycia Parksavg 53.7¢	$24.15	$0.81	+$1.8	56% 1751-1366 (3117)

Kkunn

Alycia Parks

Invested

$30,411.01

Value

$31.0K

PnL

+$605.6

Record

43%

199-265 (464)

UpTheBlues

Alycia Parks

Invested

$9,401.27

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

HomeRunHazard

Alycia Parks

Invested

$8,973.04

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

55%

12853-10588 (23441)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Alycia Parks

Invested

$1,890

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$315

Record

51%

1067-1026 (2093)

RN1CTR

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$2,342.91

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$188.93

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

VeryLucky888CTR

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$1,270.47

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$29.93

Record

58%

34591-25199 (59790)

thestingsnake

Alycia Parks

Invested

$842.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$280.99

Record

60%

3676-2486 (6162)

ghostorderCTR

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$1,031.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$20.63

Record

68%

4026-1937 (5963)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Alycia Parks

Invested

$1,719.37

Value

$706.15

PnL

-$213.72

Record

52%

527-488 (1015)

Both legs:

Alycia Parks$443.6765.5¢+$105.87

Xinyu Wang$366.646.5¢-$319.59

Notradecopy

Alycia Parks

Invested

$484.22

Value

$511.12

PnL

+$6.73

Record

60%

3131-2064 (5195)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$223.76

Value

$308.29

PnL

+$84.53

Record

62%

24131-14569 (38700)

0xheavy888CTR

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$160.03

Value

$152.64

PnL

+$3.69

Record

55%

6546-5254 (11800)

efntrickCTR<$100

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$51.55

Value

$41.03

PnL

-$10.52

Record

48%

3516-3772 (7288)

SchruteBucks<$100

Alycia Parks

Invested

$24.15

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$1.8

Record

56%

1751-1366 (3117)

Research grade

NeutralAlycia Parks at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Alycia Parks

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alycia Parks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.