Curitiba: Antonia Vergara vs Eduarda Gomes

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Antonia Vergara (71%) · Antonia Vergara at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 2

Antonia Vergara>99¢Eduarda Gomes<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Antonia Vergara

Consensus Traders

Antonia Vergara 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$179.6

Smart Money Entry

94¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralAntonia Vergara at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Antonia Vergara

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Antonia Vergara100%

Eduarda Gomes1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Antonia Vergara5 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares9,001

Combined PnL-$179.02

Eduarda Gomes2 traders

Total Value$3.89

Total Shares49

Combined PnL-$0.58

Antonia Vergara — 71%Eduarda Gomes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Antonia Vergara. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAntonia Vergara 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpEduarda Gomes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEduarda Gomes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Antonia Vergara 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Antonia Vergaraavg 95.3¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	-$195.01	54% 15456-12940 (28396)
UP UpTheBlues	Antonia Vergaraavg 92.6¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$8.19	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
RN1ARB<$100	Eduarda Gomesavg 4.2¢	$232.93	$354.21	+$121.28	54% 51828-43764 (95592)
└ Eduarda Gomes leg	Eduarda Gomesavg 4.2¢	$131.29	$252.19	+$120.89
└ Antonia Vergara leg	Antonia Vergaraavg 91.7¢	$101.64	$102.02	+$0.38
1L 1lovejump	Antonia Vergaraavg 91.7¢	$924.43	$193.15	+$11.58	52% 542-494 (1036)
heyboy800	Antonia Vergaraavg 88¢	$176	$184	+$9	62% 826-513 (1339)
EF efntrick<$100	Antonia Vergaraavg 88.9¢	$74	$77.6	+$3.6	48% 3567-3817 (7384)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Eduarda Gomesavg 7.2¢	$2.07	$2.29	+$0.22	55% 2155-1770 (3925)
poshposhCTR<$100	Eduarda Gomesavg 12¢	$2.4	$1.6	-$0.8	61% 8640-5569 (14209)

HomeRunHazard

Antonia Vergara

Invested

$5,406.71

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$195.01

Record

54%

15456-12940 (28396)

UpTheBlues

Antonia Vergara

Invested

$3,285.07

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$8.19

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

RN1ARB<$100

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$232.93

Value

$354.21

PnL

+$121.28

Record

54%

51828-43764 (95592)

Both legs:

Eduarda Gomes$131.294.2¢+$120.89

Antonia Vergara$101.6491.7¢+$0.38

1lovejump

Antonia Vergara

Invested

$924.43

Value

$193.15

PnL

+$11.58

Record

52%

542-494 (1036)

heyboy800

Antonia Vergara

Invested

$176

Value

$184

PnL

+$9

Record

62%

826-513 (1339)

efntrick<$100

Antonia Vergara

Invested

$74

Value

$77.6

PnL

+$3.6

Record

48%

3567-3817 (7384)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$0.22

Record

55%

2155-1770 (3925)

poshposhCTR<$100

Eduarda Gomes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.8

Record

61%

8640-5569 (14209)

Research grade

NeutralAntonia Vergara at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Antonia Vergara

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Antonia Vergara. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAntonia Vergara 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpEduarda Gomes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEduarda Gomes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Antonia Vergara 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Antonia Vergara wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.