Pan Pacific Open, Qualification: Tereza Valentova vs Shuai Zhang

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Tereza Valentova (33%) · Tereza Valentova at 66¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 1

Tereza Valentova66¢Shuai Zhang34¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tereza Valentova

Consensus Traders

Tereza Valentova 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$315.7

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 65.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTereza Valentova at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tereza Valentova

5 of 15 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tereza Valentova66%

Shuai Zhang35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tereza Valentova5 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares9,029

Combined PnL+$1.13

Shuai Zhang10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,705

Combined PnL+$314.56

Tereza Valentova — 33%Shuai Zhang — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793	Tereza Valentovaavg 67¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$22.8	55% 197-163 (360)
Kangta8585	Tereza Valentovaavg 66.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.23	55% 992-820 (1812)
RN1CTR	Shuai Zhangavg 33¢	$775.34	$1.1K	+$293.04	55% 43123-35478 (78601)
HO HomeRunHazard	Tereza Valentovaavg 77.8¢	$926.8	$935.1	+$8.3	55% 11759-9662 (21421)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 45.8¢	$835.42	$704.79	-$11.98	60% 3516-2387 (5903)
└ Shuai Zhang leg	Shuai Zhangavg 45.8¢	$530.61	$527.48	-$7.9
└ Tereza Valentova leg	Tereza Valentovaavg 55.8¢	$181.39	$177.31	-$4.08
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 43.8¢	$1.0K	$698.09	-$332.72	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
└ Tereza Valentova leg	Tereza Valentovaavg 79.8¢	$424.59	$428.4	+$3.81
└ Shuai Zhang leg	Shuai Zhangavg 43.8¢	$606.22	$269.68	-$336.53
VeryLucky888CTR	Shuai Zhangavg 33¢	$829.42	$694.09	+$14.31	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
88M	Tereza Valentovaavg 55¢	$549.99	$564.99	+$15	42% 666-913 (1579)
OU outloudmCTR	Shuai Zhangavg 44¢	$272.8	$275.9	+$3.1	60% 57-38 (95)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Shuai Zhangavg 43¢	$215	$217.5	+$2.5	51% 960-920 (1880)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 31¢	$39.13	$42.29	+$3.16	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
EF efntrick<$100	Tereza Valentovaavg 59¢	$19.17	$19.57	+$0.41	48% 3439-3707 (7146)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 33¢	$18.15	$18.43	+$0.28	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 52¢	$20	$18.15	-$1.85	71% 17316-6997 (24313)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 33¢	$7.81	$7.92	+$0.12	60% 2979-1997 (4976)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 34¢	$3.4	$3.45	+$0.05	52% 5490-5090 (10580)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Shuai Zhangavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.28	-$0.13	53% 12096-10862 (22958)

0xc8a4337850Be801fcf6a0a2c257085895Cd8c97f-1790014603793

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$3,054.77

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$22.8

Record

55%

197-163 (360)

Kangta8585

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.23

Record

55%

992-820 (1812)

RN1CTR

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$775.34

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$293.04

Record

55%

43123-35478 (78601)

HomeRunHazard

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$926.8

Value

$935.1

PnL

+$8.3

Record

55%

11759-9662 (21421)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$835.42

Value

$704.79

PnL

-$11.98

Record

60%

3516-2387 (5903)

Both legs:

Shuai Zhang$530.6145.8¢-$7.9

Tereza Valentova$181.3955.8¢-$4.08

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$1,030.81

Value

$698.09

PnL

-$332.72

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

Both legs:

Tereza Valentova$424.5979.8¢+$3.81

Shuai Zhang$606.2243.8¢-$336.53

VeryLucky888CTR

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$829.42

Value

$694.09

PnL

+$14.31

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

88M

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$549.99

Value

$564.99

PnL

+$15

Record

42%

666-913 (1579)

outloudmCTR

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$272.8

Value

$275.9

PnL

+$3.1

Record

60%

57-38 (95)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$215

Value

$217.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

51%

960-920 (1880)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$39.13

Value

$42.29

PnL

+$3.16

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

efntrick<$100

Tereza Valentova

Invested

$19.17

Value

$19.57

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

3439-3707 (7146)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$18.15

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$0.28

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$20

Value

$18.15

PnL

-$1.85

Record

71%

17316-6997 (24313)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$7.81

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$0.12

Record

60%

2979-1997 (4976)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

5490-5090 (10580)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Shuai Zhang

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

12096-10862 (22958)

Research grade

NeutralTereza Valentova at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Tereza Valentova

5 of 15 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tereza Valentova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.