Guangzhou Open: Panna Udvardy vs Sinja Kraus

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Sinja Kraus (69%) · Sinja Kraus at 100¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 3

Panna Udvardy<1¢Sinja Kraus>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sinja Kraus

Consensus Traders

Sinja Kraus 69%

Total Value

$39.5K

Combined PnL

-$536.72

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralSinja Kraus at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sinja Kraus

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Panna Udvardy0%

Sinja Kraus100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panna Udvardy5 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares40,720

Combined PnL-$291.66

Sinja Kraus11 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares33,721

Combined PnL-$245.06

Panna Udvardy — 31%Sinja Kraus — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkooCTR	Panna Udvardyavg 37.5¢	$15.0K	$14.6K	-$415.81	50% 551-542 (1093)
RN1	Sinja Krausavg 63.7¢	$11.0K	$11.2K	+$183.62	54% 49727-41784 (91511)
HO HomeRunHazard	Sinja Krausavg 69.9¢	$7.6K	$6.9K	-$698.28	55% 13724-11269 (24993)
UP UpTheBlues	Sinja Krausavg 92.6¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$157.77	61% 39128-25536 (64664)
1L 1lovejump	Sinja Krausavg 79.6¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	+$253.63	52% 529-488 (1017)
CH chiefphi	Sinja Krausavg 65.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$32.91	55% 72-58 (130)
TH thestingsnake	Sinja Krausavg 64.1¢	$377.13	$386.85	+$105.32	60% 3713-2507 (6220)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Sinja Krausavg 99.1¢	$576.53	$369.25	-$207.29	53% 12718-11358 (24076)
JO jole24CTR	Panna Udvardyavg 19¢	$109.25	$209.88	+$100.63	45% 984-1226 (2210)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Panna Udvardyavg 25¢	$23.34	$34.08	+$10.74	50% 3514-3520 (7034)
EF efntrick<$100	Sinja Krausavg 67.1¢	$26.85	$25.4	-$1.45	48% 3534-3785 (7319)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Panna Udvardyavg 23¢	$13.96	$22.15	+$8.19	49% 16876-17268 (34144)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Sinja Krausavg 81¢	$27.55	$21.59	-$5.96	58% 17101-12568 (29669)
VeryLucky888<$100	Sinja Krausavg 62¢	$19.66	$20.14	+$0.48	58% 36504-26536 (63040)
c4acap<$100	Sinja Krausavg 99.9¢	$15.19	$15.2	+$0.01	98% 2295-36 (2331)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Panna Udvardyavg 25¢	$10	$14.6	+$4.6	71% 19447-7919 (27366)

kkookkooCTR

Panna Udvardy

Invested

$14,998

Value

$14.6K

PnL

-$415.81

Record

50%

551-542 (1093)

RN1

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$11,027.77

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$183.62

Record

54%

49727-41784 (91511)

HomeRunHazard

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$7,629.12

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$698.28

Record

55%

13724-11269 (24993)

UpTheBlues

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$3,120.18

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$157.77

Record

61%

39128-25536 (64664)

1lovejump

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$1,709.08

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$253.63

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

chiefphi

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$1,139.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$32.91

Record

55%

72-58 (130)

thestingsnake

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$377.13

Value

$386.85

PnL

+$105.32

Record

60%

3713-2507 (6220)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$576.53

Value

$369.25

PnL

-$207.29

Record

53%

12718-11358 (24076)

jole24CTR

Panna Udvardy

Invested

$109.25

Value

$209.88

PnL

+$100.63

Record

45%

984-1226 (2210)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Panna Udvardy

Invested

$23.34

Value

$34.08

PnL

+$10.74

Record

50%

3514-3520 (7034)

efntrick<$100

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$26.85

Value

$25.4

PnL

-$1.45

Record

48%

3534-3785 (7319)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Panna Udvardy

Invested

$13.96

Value

$22.15

PnL

+$8.19

Record

49%

16876-17268 (34144)

BillBenter2026<$100

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$27.55

Value

$21.59

PnL

-$5.96

Record

58%

17101-12568 (29669)

VeryLucky888<$100

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$19.66

Value

$20.14

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

36504-26536 (63040)

c4acap<$100

Sinja Kraus

Invested

$15.19

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$0.01

Record

98%

2295-36 (2331)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Panna Udvardy

Invested

$10

Value

$14.6

PnL

+$4.6

Record

71%

19447-7919 (27366)

Research grade

NeutralSinja Kraus at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Sinja Kraus

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sinja Kraus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.