Pan Pacific Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Elise Mertens

18 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Elise Mertens (90%) · Elise Mertens at 100¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 3

Moyuka Uchijima<1¢Elise Mertens>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elise Mertens

Consensus Traders

Elise Mertens 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.2K

Combined PnL

-$530.25

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.5¢

+3% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralElise Mertens at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elise Mertens

18 of 20 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Moyuka Uchijima1%

Elise Mertens100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elise Mertens18 traders

Total Value$67.5K

Total Shares68,531

Combined PnL-$235.95

Moyuka Uchijima2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares102,420

Combined PnL-$294.3

Elise Mertens — 90%Moyuka Uchijima — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Elise Mertensavg 98.1¢	$34.0K	$33.9K	-$21.97	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
RN1	Elise Mertensavg 98.8¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	+$64.52	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Elise Mertensavg 90.2¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	-$66.19	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
tradecraft	Elise Mertensavg 95.3¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$143.71	52% 5637-5262 (10899)
HRTrading	Elise Mertensavg 98¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$18.84	55% 2064-1680 (3744)
TRCM	Elise Mertensavg 98¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$15	56% 3845-3077 (6922)
FL flatbarrel	Elise Mertensavg 98¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$15	59% 2648-1819 (4467)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Elise Mertensavg 91.8¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$405.65	55% 14758-12309 (27067)
└ Elise Mertens leg	Elise Mertensavg 91.8¢	$1.1K	$984.3	-$84.8
└ Moyuka Uchijima leg	Moyuka Uchijimaavg 7¢	$406.66	$897.11	+$490.45
KK KkunnCTR	Moyuka Uchijimaavg 2¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$500	43% 199-265 (464)
TH thestingsnake	Elise Mertensavg 92.9¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$120.1	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Elise Mertensavg 91¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$10	51% 1087-1048 (2135)
IL Illiasca	Elise Mertensavg 98¢	$1,000	$862.24	-$137.76	64% 230-127 (357)
RollAwayTheDew	Elise Mertensavg 82.3¢	$811.72	$833.17	+$21.45	53% 265-239 (504)
SC SchruteBucks	Elise Mertensavg 98¢	$588	$591	+$3	56% 1753-1371 (3124)
1L 1lovejump	Elise Mertensavg 91¢	$2.3K	$525.52	-$124.05	52% 529-488 (1017)
VeryLucky888	Elise Mertensavg 85¢	$419.46	$416.99	-$2.47	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
GH ghostorderCTR	Moyuka Uchijimaavg 7¢	$169.4	$375.1	+$205.7	62% 4176-2564 (6740)
0xheavy888<$100	Elise Mertensavg 85¢	$72.31	$71.88	-$0.43	56% 6646-5318 (11964)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Elise Mertensavg 89.6¢	$73.5	$69.29	-$4.21	58% 17314-12719 (30033)
PA pauleta23<$100	Elise Mertensavg 93.3¢	$40	$42.25	+$2.25	71% 20000-8116 (28116)
EF efntrick<$100	Elise Mertensavg 81¢	$15.3	$20.42	+$5.12	48% 3551-3797 (7348)

UpTheBlues

Elise Mertens

Invested

$33,953.17

Value

$33.9K

PnL

-$21.97

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

RN1

Elise Mertens

Invested

$9,174.47

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$64.52

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Elise Mertens

Invested

$4,701.29

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$66.19

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

tradecraft

Elise Mertens

Invested

$4,302.83

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$143.71

Record

52%

5637-5262 (10899)

HRTrading

Elise Mertens

Invested

$3,693.14

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$18.84

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

TRCM

Elise Mertens

Invested

$2,940

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$15

Record

56%

3845-3077 (6922)

flatbarrel

Elise Mertens

Invested

$2,940

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$15

Record

59%

2648-1819 (4467)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Elise Mertens

Invested

$1,475.76

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$405.65

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

Both legs:

Elise Mertens$1,069.191.8¢-$84.8

Moyuka Uchijima$406.667¢+$490.45

KkunnCTR

Moyuka Uchijima

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$500

Record

43%

199-265 (464)

thestingsnake

Elise Mertens

Invested

$2,010.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$120.1

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Elise Mertens

Invested

$1,010

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

1087-1048 (2135)

Illiasca

Elise Mertens

Invested

$1,000

Value

$862.24

PnL

-$137.76

Record

64%

230-127 (357)

RollAwayTheDew

Elise Mertens

Invested

$811.72

Value

$833.17

PnL

+$21.45

Record

53%

265-239 (504)

SchruteBucks

Elise Mertens

Invested

$588

Value

$591

PnL

+$3

Record

56%

1753-1371 (3124)

1lovejump

Elise Mertens

Invested

$2,253.62

Value

$525.52

PnL

-$124.05

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

VeryLucky888

Elise Mertens

Invested

$419.46

Value

$416.99

PnL

-$2.47

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

ghostorderCTR

Moyuka Uchijima

Invested

$169.4

Value

$375.1

PnL

+$205.7

Record

62%

4176-2564 (6740)

0xheavy888<$100

Elise Mertens

Invested

$72.31

Value

$71.88

PnL

-$0.43

Record

56%

6646-5318 (11964)

BillBenter2026<$100

Elise Mertens

Invested

$73.5

Value

$69.29

PnL

-$4.21

Record

58%

17314-12719 (30033)

pauleta23<$100

Elise Mertens

Invested

$40

Value

$42.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

71%

20000-8116 (28116)

efntrick<$100

Elise Mertens

Invested

$15.3

Value

$20.42

PnL

+$5.12

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

Research grade

NeutralElise Mertens at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Elise Mertens

18 of 20 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elise Mertens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.