Guangzhou Open: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Zeynep Sonmez

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Zeynep Sonmez (71%) · Zeynep Sonmez at 84¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 3

Sara Sorribes Tormo16¢Zeynep Sonmez84¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Zeynep Sonmez

Consensus Traders

Zeynep Sonmez 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 84¢

+8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateZeynep Sonmez at 84%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Zeynep Sonmez

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sara Sorribes Tormo16%

Zeynep Sonmez84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Zeynep Sonmez10 traders

Total Value$22.5K

Total Shares28,356

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Sara Sorribes Tormo4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares9,808

Combined PnL-$218.27

Zeynep Sonmez — 71%Sara Sorribes Tormo — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Zeynep Sonmezavg 85.8¢	$12.7K	$11.3K	$-1.4K	59% 44203-30575 (74778)
isco22	Zeynep Sonmezavg 69¢	$8.6K	$8.8K	+$248.59	64% 114-65 (179)
RN1CTR	Sara Sorribes Tormoavg 31¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$150.64	54% 55279-47296 (102575)
1L 1lovejump	Zeynep Sonmezavg 79.9¢	$2.7K	$1.1K	-$19.82	53% 565-507 (1072)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Sara Sorribes Tormoavg 13.2¢	$616.39	$827.58	+$211.19	54% 16692-14013 (30705)
└ Sara Sorribes Tormo leg	Sara Sorribes Tormoavg 13.2¢	$339.41	$576.52	+$237.11
└ Zeynep Sonmez leg	Zeynep Sonmezavg 85.5¢	$276.99	$251.06	-$25.92
IL Illiasca	Zeynep Sonmezavg 75.1¢	$600	$566.96	-$33.04	65% 238-129 (367)
TH thestingsnake	Zeynep Sonmezavg 73¢	$661.33	$541.42	+$53.08	60% 3875-2632 (6507)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Sara Sorribes Tormoavg 30.9¢	$561.56	$526.93	-$34.63	62% 13571-8389 (21960)
tradecraft<$100	Zeynep Sonmezavg 72¢	$99.7	$98.31	-$1.38	52% 5798-5429 (11227)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Sara Sorribes Tormoavg 18.9¢	$83.43	$50.78	-$32.65	52% 13458-12308 (25766)
0xheavy888<$100	Zeynep Sonmezavg 69¢	$48.3	$49.7	+$1.4	56% 6824-5466 (12290)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Zeynep Sonmezavg 72¢	$24.48	$24.14	-$0.34	58% 18283-13435 (31718)
EF efntrick<$100	Zeynep Sonmezavg 88¢	$19.1	$19.43	+$0.32	48% 3599-3846 (7445)
PA pauleta23<$100	Zeynep Sonmezavg 91¢	$10	$7.8	-$2.2	67% 23003-11405 (34408)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sara Sorribes Tormoavg 31¢	$5.39	$5.04	-$0.35	58% 27838-20469 (48307)

UpTheBlues

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$12,672.48

Value

$11.3K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

44203-30575 (74778)

isco22

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$8,576.5

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$248.59

Record

64%

114-65 (179)

RN1CTR

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Invested

$2,334.92

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$150.64

Record

54%

55279-47296 (102575)

1lovejump

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$2,715.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$19.82

Record

53%

565-507 (1072)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Invested

$616.39

Value

$827.58

PnL

+$211.19

Record

54%

16692-14013 (30705)

Both legs:

Sara Sorribes Tormo$339.4113.2¢+$237.11

Zeynep Sonmez$276.9985.5¢-$25.92

Illiasca

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$600

Value

$566.96

PnL

-$33.04

Record

65%

238-129 (367)

thestingsnake

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$661.33

Value

$541.42

PnL

+$53.08

Record

60%

3875-2632 (6507)

LilybaeumCTR

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Invested

$561.56

Value

$526.93

PnL

-$34.63

Record

62%

13571-8389 (21960)

tradecraft<$100

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$99.7

Value

$98.31

PnL

-$1.38

Record

52%

5798-5429 (11227)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Invested

$83.43

Value

$50.78

PnL

-$32.65

Record

52%

13458-12308 (25766)

0xheavy888<$100

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$48.3

Value

$49.7

PnL

+$1.4

Record

56%

6824-5466 (12290)

BillBenter2026<$100

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$24.48

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

18283-13435 (31718)

efntrick<$100

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$19.1

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

3599-3846 (7445)

pauleta23<$100

Zeynep Sonmez

Invested

$10

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$2.2

Record

67%

23003-11405 (34408)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Invested

$5.39

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

Research grade

Research candidateZeynep Sonmez at 84%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Tennis tour level, 70 %+ of 5+ holders: +16.6 % (spring, n 164) and +19.0 % (October, n 120); the best category, but it fails the guard across 22 categories. Challenger/ITF had no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Zeynep Sonmez

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Zeynep Sonmez wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.