Guangzhou Open: Maria Timofeeva vs Teodora Kostovic

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Timofeeva (47%) · Maria Timofeeva at 100¢ · $77K held · ends Nov 2

Maria Timofeeva>99¢Teodora Kostovic<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maria Timofeeva

Consensus Traders

Maria Timofeeva 47%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$76.5K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaria Timofeeva at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Timofeeva

8 of 17 top traders (47%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Maria Timofeeva100%

Teodora Kostovic0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maria Timofeeva8 traders

Total Value$31.6K

Total Shares40,268

Combined PnL$-7.5K

Teodora Kostovic9 traders

Total Value$26.6K

Total Shares60,659

Combined PnL+$11.3K

Maria Timofeeva — 47%Teodora Kostovic — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
c4acap	Maria Timofeevaavg 99.9¢	$20.2K	$20.2K	+$10.1	98% 2295-36 (2331)
KK kkookkooCTR	Teodora Kostovicavg 38.9¢	$12.5K	$13.9K	+$1.5K	50% 551-542 (1093)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Maria Timofeevaavg 75.1¢	$13.1K	$12.2K	-$924.24	55% 13724-11269 (24993)
└ Maria Timofeeva leg	Maria Timofeevaavg 75.1¢	$12.9K	$9.7K	$-3.2K
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 3.8¢	$220.36	$2.5K	+$2.3K
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Teodora Kostovicavg 7.5¢	$1.9K	$10.7K	+$8.9K	61% 39128-25536 (64664)
MO Momo63	Maria Timofeevaavg 99.7¢	$15.5K	$8.8K	$-6.7K	93% 755-57 (812)
RN1ARB<$100	Maria Timofeevaavg 83¢	$5.9K	$4.9K	$-1.0K	54% 49727-41784 (91511)
└ Maria Timofeeva leg	Maria Timofeevaavg 83¢	$5.1K	$3.5K	$-1.6K
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 25.2¢	$828.28	$1.4K	+$601.76
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Maria Timofeevaavg 74¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$525	51% 1084-1043 (2127)
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Teodora Kostovicavg 15.6¢	$2.1K	$1.2K	+$524.26	52% 529-488 (1017)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Maria Timofeevaavg 87.5¢	$1.3K	$854.01	+$6.66	60% 3713-2507 (6220)
└ Maria Timofeeva leg	Maria Timofeevaavg 87.5¢	$725.36	$468.33	-$210.59
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 16.4¢	$145.18	$385.68	+$217.25
12xmrboltCTR	Teodora Kostovicavg 0.5¢	$5	$435	+$430	44% 235-300 (535)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Maria Timofeevaavg 85¢	$600	$398.82	-$201.18	53% 2566-2265 (4831)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Maria Timofeevaavg 93.8¢	$237.55	$344.69	+$107.14	53% 12718-11358 (24076)
└ Teodora Kostovic leg	Teodora Kostovicavg 4¢	$19.63	$213.47	+$193.84
└ Maria Timofeeva leg	Maria Timofeevaavg 93.8¢	$217.92	$131.22	-$86.7
HRTrading	Maria Timofeevaavg 61.1¢	$252.83	$257.97	+$5.14	55% 2028-1637 (3665)
tradecraftCTR	Teodora Kostovicavg 42.8¢	$152.05	$154.43	+$2.38	52% 5625-5238 (10863)
poshposh	Maria Timofeevaavg 68.8¢	$159.58	$131.09	-$28.49	—
EF efntrick	Maria Timofeevaavg 80¢	$100.15	$111.53	+$11.38	48% 3534-3785 (7319)
BI BillBenter2026	Maria Timofeevaavg 86.9¢	$138.32	$95.12	-$43.21	58% 17101-12568 (29669)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 40.2¢	$83.46	$90.42	+$6.96	57% 23656-18201 (41857)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 35¢	$43.4	$53.94	+$10.54	56% 6621-5299 (11920)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 40¢	$38.28	$41.63	+$3.35	50% 3514-3520 (7034)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Teodora Kostovicavg 41¢	$14.83	$15.74	+$0.9	62% 13220-8074 (21294)

c4acap

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$20,183.49

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$10.1

Record

98%

2295-36 (2331)

kkookkooCTR

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$12,461.43

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

551-542 (1093)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$13,120.47

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$924.24

Record

55%

13724-11269 (24993)

Both legs:

Maria Timofeeva$12,900.1175.1¢$-3.2K

Teodora Kostovic$220.363.8¢+$2.3K

UpTheBluesCTR

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$1,850.95

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$8.9K

Record

61%

39128-25536 (64664)

Momo63

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$15,454.49

Value

$8.8K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

93%

755-57 (812)

RN1ARB<$100

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$5,944.57

Value

$4.9K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

54%

49727-41784 (91511)

Both legs:

Maria Timofeeva$5,116.2983¢$-1.6K

Teodora Kostovic$828.2825.2¢+$601.76

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$2,220

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$525

Record

51%

1084-1043 (2127)

1lovejumpCTR

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$2,127.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$524.26

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$1,342.45

Value

$854.01

PnL

+$6.66

Record

60%

3713-2507 (6220)

Both legs:

Maria Timofeeva$725.3687.5¢-$210.59

Teodora Kostovic$145.1816.4¢+$217.25

12xmrboltCTR

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

Value

$435

PnL

+$430

Record

44%

235-300 (535)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$600

Value

$398.82

PnL

-$201.18

Record

53%

2566-2265 (4831)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$237.55

Value

$344.69

PnL

+$107.14

Record

53%

12718-11358 (24076)

Both legs:

Teodora Kostovic$19.634¢+$193.84

Maria Timofeeva$217.9293.8¢-$86.7

HRTrading

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$252.83

Value

$257.97

PnL

+$5.14

Record

55%

2028-1637 (3665)

tradecraftCTR

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$152.05

Value

$154.43

PnL

+$2.38

Record

52%

5625-5238 (10863)

poshposh

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$159.58

Value

$131.09

PnL

-$28.49

Record

—

efntrick

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$100.15

Value

$111.53

PnL

+$11.38

Record

48%

3534-3785 (7319)

BillBenter2026

Maria Timofeeva

Invested

$138.32

Value

$95.12

PnL

-$43.21

Record

58%

17101-12568 (29669)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$83.46

Value

$90.42

PnL

+$6.96

Record

57%

23656-18201 (41857)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$43.4

Value

$53.94

PnL

+$10.54

Record

56%

6621-5299 (11920)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$38.28

Value

$41.63

PnL

+$3.35

Record

50%

3514-3520 (7034)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Teodora Kostovic

Invested

$14.83

Value

$15.74

PnL

+$0.9

Record

62%

13220-8074 (21294)

Research grade

NeutralMaria Timofeeva at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Timofeeva

8 of 17 top traders (47%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maria Timofeeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.