Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Anna Bondar, while the market favors Daria Snigur (66%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guangzhou Open: Daria Snigur vs Anna Bondar
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Bondar (67%) · Anna Bondar at 35¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Anna Bondar
6
Anna Bondar 67%
$1.2K
$19.65
33¢ → 34.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAnna Bondar at 35%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Daria Snigur 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Anna Bondaravg 33¢ | $1.1K | $628.74 | +$6.84 | 58% 32399-23548 (55947) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Anna Bondaravg 32.9¢ | $189.94 | $196.01 | +$6.07 | 65% 12604-6752 (19356) |
IL Illiasca | Daria Sniguravg 67¢ | $175 | $175 | +$0 | 64% 228-127 (355) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Daria Sniguravg 66¢ | $96.68 | $98.14 | +$3.66 | 54% 255-214 (469) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Anna Bondaravg 33.4¢ | $68.9 | $70.04 | +$1.14 | 54% 14164-11846 (26010) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Anna Bondaravg 33¢ | $63.95 | $65.89 | +$1.94 | 49% 11171-11503 (22674) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,107.7
Value
$628.74
PnL
+$6.84
Record
58%
32399-23548 (55947)
Invested
$189.94
Value
$196.01
PnL
+$6.07
Record
65%
12604-6752 (19356)
Invested
$175
Value
$175
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
228-127 (355)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$96.68
Value
$98.14
PnL
+$3.66
Record
54%
255-214 (469)
Invested
$68.9
Value
$70.04
PnL
+$1.14
Record
54%
14164-11846 (26010)
Invested
$63.95
Value
$65.89
PnL
+$1.94
Record
49%
11171-11503 (22674)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.