Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Shi vs. Ibragimova: Match O/U 21.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Over50¢Under50¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$230.98

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 50¢

-49% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$924.39

Total Shares1,813

Combined PnL-$839.59

Over4 traders

Total Value$679.7

Total Shares2,163

Combined PnL+$608.61

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 97.6¢	$1.8K	$918	-$839.32	95% 17177-993 (18170)
RO Rock.San	Overavg 4.2¢	$51.5	$605.15	+$553.65	88% 9905-1327 (11232)
ZX zxc368<$100	Overavg 13¢	$9.75	$36.75	+$27	99% 10570-153 (10723)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 15¢	$1.36	$33.56	+$32.2	63% 25635-15377 (41012)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$5.49	$5.28	-$0.21	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81<$100	Overavg 1¢	$8.48	$4.24	-$4.24	59% 234-163 (397)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 54¢	$1.17	$1.11	-$0.07	55% 14758-12309 (27067)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$1,757.32

Value

$918

PnL

-$839.32

Record

95%

17177-993 (18170)

Rock.San

Over

Invested

$51.5

Value

$605.15

PnL

+$553.65

Record

88%

9905-1327 (11232)

zxc368<$100

Over

Invested

$9.75

Value

$36.75

PnL

+$27

Record

99%

10570-153 (10723)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$1.36

Value

$33.56

PnL

+$32.2

Record

63%

25635-15377 (41012)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$5.49

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81<$100

Over

Invested

$8.48

Value

$4.24

PnL

-$4.24

Record

59%

234-163 (397)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.