Guangzhou Open: Han Shi vs Alevtina Ibragimova

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Han Shi (50%) · Han Shi at 63¢ · $422 held · ends Nov 2

Han Shi63¢Alevtina Ibragimova37¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Han Shi

Consensus Traders

Han Shi 50%

Total Value

$422.48

Combined PnL

$6.63

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 63¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralHan Shi at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Han Shi

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Han Shi63%

Alevtina Ibragimova37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Han Shi2 traders

Total Value$393.12

Total Shares624

Combined PnL+$6.24

Alevtina Ibragimova2 traders

Total Value$29.36

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$0.39

Han Shi — 50%Alevtina Ibragimova — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Han Shiavg 62¢	$310	$315	+$5	58% 33858-24647 (58505)
0xheavy888<$100	Han Shiavg 62¢	$76.88	$78.12	+$1.24	56% 6515-5214 (11729)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Alevtina Ibragimovaavg 37¢	$28.77	$28.77	+$0.39	55% 15069-12329 (27398)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Alevtina Ibragimovaavg 37¢	$0.59	$0.59	+$0	62% 12825-7706 (20531)

VeryLucky888

Han Shi

Invested

$310

Value

$315

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

33858-24647 (58505)

0xheavy888<$100

Han Shi

Invested

$76.88

Value

$78.12

PnL

+$1.24

Record

56%

6515-5214 (11729)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Alevtina Ibragimova

Invested

$28.77

Value

$28.77

PnL

+$0.39

Record

55%

15069-12329 (27398)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Alevtina Ibragimova

Invested

$0.59

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

12825-7706 (20531)

Research grade

NeutralHan Shi at 63%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Han Shi

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Han Shi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.