Pan Pacific Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nikola Bartunkova (50%) · Nikola Bartunkova at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Aliaksandra Sasnovich36¢Nikola Bartunkova64¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nikola Bartunkova

Consensus Traders

Nikola Bartunkova 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$9.03

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 64.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNikola Bartunkova at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nikola Bartunkova

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Aliaksandra Sasnovich36%

Nikola Bartunkova65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nikola Bartunkova3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,243

Combined PnL-$18.67

Aliaksandra Sasnovich3 traders

Total Value$408.34

Total Shares1,124

Combined PnL+$9.65

Nikola Bartunkova — 50%Aliaksandra Sasnovich — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OU outloudm	Nikola Bartunkovaavg 65¢	$1.0K	$977.57	-$23.09	59% 59-41 (100)
NO Notradecopy	Nikola Bartunkovaavg 64¢	$259.27	$257.24	-$2.03	61% 3220-2095 (5315)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 36¢	$234.27	$237.52	+$3.25	61% 39128-25536 (64664)
VeryLucky888	Nikola Bartunkovaavg 63¢	$347.46	$217.9	+$6.44	58% 36504-26536 (63040)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 34.1¢	$95.75	$102.54	+$6.79	62% 13220-8074 (21294)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 35.7¢	$68.67	$68.27	-$0.4	57% 23656-18201 (41857)

outloudm

Nikola Bartunkova

Invested

$1,000.66

Value

$977.57

PnL

-$23.09

Record

59%

59-41 (100)

Notradecopy

Nikola Bartunkova

Invested

$259.27

Value

$257.24

PnL

-$2.03

Record

61%

3220-2095 (5315)

UpTheBluesCTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$234.27

Value

$237.52

PnL

+$3.25

Record

61%

39128-25536 (64664)

VeryLucky888

Nikola Bartunkova

Invested

$347.46

Value

$217.9

PnL

+$6.44

Record

58%

36504-26536 (63040)

LilybaeumCTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$95.75

Value

$102.54

PnL

+$6.79

Record

62%

13220-8074 (21294)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$68.67

Value

$68.27

PnL

-$0.4

Record

57%

23656-18201 (41857)

Research grade

NeutralNikola Bartunkova at 65%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Nikola Bartunkova

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nikola Bartunkova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.