Curitiba: Laura Samson vs Alice Tubello

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Tubello (77%) · Alice Tubello at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 2

Laura Samson<1¢Alice Tubello>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alice Tubello

Consensus Traders

Alice Tubello 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

-$435.55

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Laura Samson0%

Alice Tubello100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alice Tubello10 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares6,718

Combined PnL-$595.08

Laura Samson3 traders

Total Value$671.93

Total Shares2,140

Combined PnL+$159.53

Alice Tubello — 77%Laura Samson — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Alice Tubello. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlice Tubello 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLaura Samson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLaura Samson 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlice Tubello 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alice Tubello 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Alice Tubelloavg 84.8¢	$3.7K	$3.3K	-$396.41	54% 15456-12940 (28396)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 72.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$98.34	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
└ Alice Tubello leg	Alice Tubelloavg 72.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$32.38
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 24.9¢	$801.44	$932.16	+$130.72
TH thestingsnake	Alice Tubelloavg 95.9¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$224	60% 3805-2576 (6381)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Alice Tubelloavg 99¢	$649.3	$652.58	+$3.28	95% 18138-1016 (19154)
tradecraftCTR	Laura Samsonavg 23.5¢	$311.83	$395	+$83.16	52% 5759-5374 (11133)
poshposh	Alice Tubelloavg 56¢	$168	$213	+$45	61% 8640-5569 (14209)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Laura Samsonavg 26.7¢	$145.32	$158.03	+$12.71	53% 13162-11646 (24808)
BI BillBenter2026	Alice Tubelloavg 73.1¢	$124.97	$121.41	-$3.56	58% 17805-13089 (30894)
TRCMCTR	Laura Samsonavg 13.5¢	$55.25	$118.9	+$63.65	56% 3877-3103 (6980)
1L 1lovejump	Alice Tubelloavg 40.8¢	$186.45	$55.33	+$71.09	52% 542-494 (1036)
EF efntrick<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 50.3¢	$38	$52.1	+$14.1	48% 3567-3817 (7384)
US User7429<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 88¢	$52.8	$42.6	-$10.2	58% 7182-5165 (12347)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Alice Tubelloavg 84.9¢	$708.86	$17.75	-$91.4	67% 504-250 (754)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 83.4¢	$20	$17.02	-$2.98	67% 22101-10723 (32824)

HomeRunHazard

Alice Tubello

Invested

$3,675.59

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$396.41

Record

54%

15456-12940 (28396)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$2,403.63

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$98.34

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

Both legs:

Alice Tubello$1,602.1972.5¢-$32.38

Laura Samson$801.4424.9¢+$130.72

thestingsnake

Alice Tubello

Invested

$1,779.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$224

Record

60%

3805-2576 (6381)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Alice Tubello

Invested

$649.3

Value

$652.58

PnL

+$3.28

Record

95%

18138-1016 (19154)

tradecraftCTR

Laura Samson

Invested

$311.83

Value

$395

PnL

+$83.16

Record

52%

5759-5374 (11133)

poshposh

Alice Tubello

Invested

$168

Value

$213

PnL

+$45

Record

61%

8640-5569 (14209)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Laura Samson

Invested

$145.32

Value

$158.03

PnL

+$12.71

Record

53%

13162-11646 (24808)

BillBenter2026

Alice Tubello

Invested

$124.97

Value

$121.41

PnL

-$3.56

Record

58%

17805-13089 (30894)

TRCMCTR

Laura Samson

Invested

$55.25

Value

$118.9

PnL

+$63.65

Record

56%

3877-3103 (6980)

1lovejump

Alice Tubello

Invested

$186.45

Value

$55.33

PnL

+$71.09

Record

52%

542-494 (1036)

efntrick<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$38

Value

$52.1

PnL

+$14.1

Record

48%

3567-3817 (7384)

User7429<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$52.8

Value

$42.6

PnL

-$10.2

Record

58%

7182-5165 (12347)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Alice Tubello

Invested

$708.86

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$91.4

Record

67%

504-250 (754)

pauleta23<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$20

Value

$17.02

PnL

-$2.98

Record

67%

22101-10723 (32824)

Research grade

NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Alice Tubello

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Alice Tubello. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlice Tubello 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpLaura Samson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLaura Samson 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedAlice Tubello 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alice Tubello 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alice Tubello wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.