Ningbo Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Elena Rybakina (60%) · Elena Rybakina at 75¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Elena Rybakina
5
Elena Rybakina 60%
1 arb excluded
$11.2K
$9.94
76¢ → 74.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralElena Rybakina at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Elena Rybakina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA madkkee | Elena Rybakinaavg 76¢ | $10.1K | $10.1K | +$0 | 66% 899-468 (1367) |
 0xheavy888 | Elena Rybakinaavg 75¢ | $423.93 | $429.58 | +$5.65 | 55% 6317-5068 (11385) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Elena Rybakinaavg 76¢ | $199.45 | $196.82 | -$1.31 | 65% 1523-816 (2339) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Elena Rybakinaavg 75¢ | $251.7 | $172.27 | +$5.14 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
| └ Elena Rybakina leg | Elena Rybakinaavg 75¢ | $131.71 | $133.46 | +$1.76 | |
| └ Leylah Fernandez leg | Leylah Fernandezavg 24¢ | $38.8 | $38.8 | +$3.38 | |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Leylah Fernandezavg 23¢ | $124.16 | $129.56 | +$8.1 | 69% 4216-1907 (6123) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Leylah Fernandezavg 25¢ | $124.99 | $122.49 | -$2.5 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
Invested
$10,133.08
Value
$10.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
66%
899-468 (1367)
0xheavy888Invested
$423.93
Value
$429.58
PnL
+$5.65
Record
55%
6317-5068 (11385)
Invested
$199.45
Value
$196.82
PnL
-$1.31
Record
65%
1523-816 (2339)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$251.7
Value
$172.27
PnL
+$5.14
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Both legs:
Invested
$124.16
Value
$129.56
PnL
+$8.1
Record
69%
4216-1907 (6123)
Invested
$124.99
Value
$122.49
PnL
-$2.5
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.