Guangzhou Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Sofia Kenin

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Kaitlin Quevedo (29%) · Kaitlin Quevedo at 81¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 3

Kaitlin Quevedo81¢Sofia Kenin19¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kaitlin Quevedo

Consensus Traders

Kaitlin Quevedo 29%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 80.5¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKaitlin Quevedo at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kaitlin Quevedo

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kaitlin Quevedo81%

Sofia Kenin20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kaitlin Quevedo4 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares12,891

Combined PnL-$122.56

Sofia Kenin10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares10,133

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Kaitlin Quevedo — 29%Sofia Kenin — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
isco22	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 62¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	-$56.45	63% 113-65 (178)
RN1CTR	Sofia Keninavg 38.2¢	$3.0K	$1.2K	$-1.8K	54% 54957-46919 (101876)
HO HomeRunHazard	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 86¢	$740.4	$697.88	-$42.53	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
1L 1lovejump	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 59.9¢	$946.04	$506.76	-$16.63	53% 559-502 (1061)
GH ghostorderCTR	Sofia Keninavg 40¢	$509.06	$477.4	-$31.67	62% 4207-2597 (6804)
TH thestingsnake	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 84¢	$259.72	$244.81	-$6.95	60% 3868-2622 (6490)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sofia Keninavg 46.8¢	$383.65	$178.18	+$7.31	58% 39913-28822 (68735)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Sofia Keninavg 46¢	$89.79	$96.62	+$6.83	62% 13564-8385 (21949)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Sofia Keninavg 47.4¢	$81.87	$85.56	+$3.69	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Sofia Keninavg 19¢	$34.39	$33.49	-$0.91	52% 13438-12293 (25731)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Sofia Keninavg 30.8¢	$50.13	$30.14	-$19.99	59% 43578-30037 (73615)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Sofia Keninavg 42¢	$10	$11.79	+$1.79	67% 22976-11372 (34348)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Sofia Keninavg 39.2¢	$9.8	$9.63	-$0.18	48% 3590-3842 (7432)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Sofia Keninavg 41¢	$1.32	$1.59	+$0.27	52% 5787-5407 (11194)

isco22

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$7,000

Value

$6.9K

PnL

-$56.45

Record

63%

113-65 (178)

RN1CTR

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$2,962.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

54%

54957-46919 (101876)

HomeRunHazard

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$740.4

Value

$697.88

PnL

-$42.53

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

1lovejump

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$946.04

Value

$506.76

PnL

-$16.63

Record

53%

559-502 (1061)

ghostorderCTR

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$509.06

Value

$477.4

PnL

-$31.67

Record

62%

4207-2597 (6804)

thestingsnake

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$259.72

Value

$244.81

PnL

-$6.95

Record

60%

3868-2622 (6490)

VeryLucky888CTR

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$383.65

Value

$178.18

PnL

+$7.31

Record

58%

39913-28822 (68735)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$89.79

Value

$96.62

PnL

+$6.83

Record

62%

13564-8385 (21949)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$81.87

Value

$85.56

PnL

+$3.69

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$34.39

Value

$33.49

PnL

-$0.91

Record

52%

13438-12293 (25731)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$50.13

Value

$30.14

PnL

-$19.99

Record

59%

43578-30037 (73615)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$10

Value

$11.79

PnL

+$1.79

Record

67%

22976-11372 (34348)

efntrickCTR<$100

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

3590-3842 (7432)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Sofia Kenin

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

5787-5407 (11194)

Research grade

NeutralKaitlin Quevedo at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Kaitlin Quevedo

4 of 14 top traders (29%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kaitlin Quevedo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.