Courmayeur: Jessica Pieri vs Elizara Yaneva

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Elizara Yaneva (40%) · Elizara Yaneva at 76¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2

Jessica Pieri24¢Elizara Yaneva76¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elizara Yaneva

Consensus Traders

Elizara Yaneva 40%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$1.91

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 75.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralElizara Yaneva at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elizara Yaneva

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jessica Pieri24%

Elizara Yaneva76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizara Yaneva2 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares13,840

Combined PnL-$2.3

Jessica Pieri3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares8,806

Combined PnL+$4.22

Elizara Yaneva — 40%Jessica Pieri — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Elizara Yaneva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jessica Pieri) and the top 1000 (4 on Elizara Yaneva) disagree here.

whaleJessica Pieri 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpElizara Yaneva 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrElizara Yaneva 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedJessica Pieri 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Elizara Yaneva 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FeedTheBigBird	Elizara Yanevaavg 76¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	-$0	51% 32-31 (63)
RN1CTR	Jessica Pieriavg 24¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$0	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
IL Illiasca	Elizara Yanevaavg 76¢	$350	$350	-$2.3	65% 235-128 (363)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Jessica Pieriavg 24¢	$860.43	$210.81	+$4.3	53% 13216-11692 (24908)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jessica Pieriavg 25¢	$4.3	$4.12	-$0.09	57% 26839-19987 (46826)

FeedTheBigBird

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$10,168.04

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

RN1CTR

Jessica Pieri

Invested

$1,902.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

Illiasca

Elizara Yaneva

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

-$2.3

Record

65%

235-128 (363)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Jessica Pieri

Invested

$860.43

Value

$210.81

PnL

+$4.3

Record

53%

13216-11692 (24908)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jessica Pieri

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

Research grade

NeutralElizara Yaneva at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Elizara Yaneva

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Elizara Yaneva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jessica Pieri) and the top 1000 (4 on Elizara Yaneva) disagree here.

whaleJessica Pieri 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpElizara Yaneva 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrElizara Yaneva 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedJessica Pieri 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Elizara Yaneva 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elizara Yaneva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.