Pan Pacific Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Talia Gibson
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Daria Kasatkina (50%) · Daria Kasatkina at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Daria Kasatkina
4
Daria Kasatkina 50%
$1.7K
$14.17
54.4¢ → 53¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralDaria Kasatkina at 53%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Talia Gibsonavg 44¢ | $797.28 | $851.64 | +$27.18 | 55% 46138-38317 (84455) |
 VeryLucky888 | Daria Kasatkinaavg 54.3¢ | $815 | $625 | -$11 | 58% 33858-24647 (58505) |
 0xheavy888 | Daria Kasatkinaavg 54.5¢ | $162.41 | $157.94 | -$4.47 | 56% 6515-5214 (11729) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Talia Gibsonavg 44¢ | $36.08 | $38.54 | +$2.46 | 55% 15069-12329 (27398) |
RN1CTRInvested
$797.28
Value
$851.64
PnL
+$27.18
Record
55%
46138-38317 (84455)
VeryLucky888Invested
$815
Value
$625
PnL
-$11
Record
58%
33858-24647 (58505)
0xheavy888Invested
$162.41
Value
$157.94
PnL
-$4.47
Record
56%
6515-5214 (11729)
Invested
$36.08
Value
$38.54
PnL
+$2.46
Record
55%
15069-12329 (27398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.