Pan Pacific Open: Maya Joint vs Sorana Cirstea
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Sorana Cirstea (50%) · Sorana Cirstea at 69¢ · $461 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Sorana Cirstea
4
Sorana Cirstea 50%
$460.81
$0.31
69¢ → 69¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSorana Cirstea at 69%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IL Illiasca | Sorana Cirsteaavg 69¢ | $200 | $200 | +$0 | 65% 237-128 (365) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Maya Jointavg 31¢ | $158.41 | $158.41 | +$0 | 58% 39668-28654 (68322) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Maya Jointavg 31¢ | $55.49 | $55.49 | +$0 | 57% 27008-20057 (47065) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Sorana Cirsteaavg 69¢ | $46.94 | $46.91 | +$0.31 | 56% 6752-5410 (12162) |
Invested
$200
Value
$200
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
237-128 (365)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$158.41
Value
$158.41
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
39668-28654 (68322)
Invested
$55.49
Value
$55.49
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
27008-20057 (47065)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$46.94
Value
$46.91
PnL
+$0.31
Record
56%
6752-5410 (12162)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.