Curitiba: Luisina Giovannini vs Lucia Bronzetti

12 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Lucia Bronzetti (52%) · Lucia Bronzetti at 53¢ · $72K held · ends Nov 2

Luisina Giovannini47¢Lucia Bronzetti53¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lucia Bronzetti

Consensus Traders

Lucia Bronzetti 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$72.1K

Combined PnL

$-11.4K

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 53.5¢

-20% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralLucia Bronzetti at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lucia Bronzetti

12 of 23 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Luisina Giovannini47%

Lucia Bronzetti53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lucia Bronzetti12 traders

Total Value$44.8K

Total Shares83,537

Combined PnL$-12.6K

Luisina Giovannini11 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares51,853

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Lucia Bronzetti — 52%Luisina Giovannini — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Lucia Bronzettiavg 65.8¢	$34.6K	$24.4K	$-6.9K	67% 513-256 (769)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 51.8¢	$16.4K	$15.1K	$-1.3K	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
01 01258787xy48487484545122	Lucia Bronzettiavg 75.2¢	$13.9K	$9.9K	$-4.0K	65% 244-134 (378)
RN1CTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 26.7¢	$3.2K	$5.6K	+$2.4K	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 41.8¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$385.8	53% 13216-11692 (24908)
YE yesmate	Lucia Bronzettiavg 73.4¢	$4.6K	$3.3K	$-1.2K	52% 347-321 (668)
0X 0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295	Lucia Bronzettiavg 70.3¢	$3.6K	$2.7K	-$860.84	68% 202-97 (299)
OM omnibus-076daa	Lucia Bronzettiavg 46.1¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$265.02	49% 18089-18501 (36590)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 58.2¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$351.31	60% 3831-2599 (6430)
MR MrDouche	Lucia Bronzettiavg 40¢	$800	$1.1K	+$270	83% 1640-345 (1985)
VeryLucky888CTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 41.3¢	$609.6	$634.09	-$56.61	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893	Lucia Bronzettiavg 57¢	$519.48	$487.58	-$31.9	38% 409-667 (1076)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 54.2¢	$1.6K	$364.85	-$86.45	52% 552-500 (1052)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 54.2¢	$227.15	$224.15	-$26.43
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 56¢	$169.51	$140.71	-$60.02
RE RebornAthena	Lucia Bronzettiavg 53¢	$355	$358.35	+$3.35	53% 1984-1787 (3771)
poshposhCTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 28¢	$168	$279	+$111	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 43.2¢	$238.95	$257.25	+$18.3	59% 29148-19878 (49026)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 44.6¢	$184.6	$205.75	+$21.15	48% 3580-3827 (7407)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 44.6¢	$102.6	$106.95	+$4.35
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 44.4¢	$82	$98.8	+$16.8
BE berlinskies	Lucia Bronzettiavg 71.8¢	$219.99	$164.03	-$55.96	58% 5649-4157 (9806)
PA pauleta23	Lucia Bronzettiavg 49.1¢	$123.38	$130.95	+$7.57	67% 22663-11132 (33795)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 42.9¢	$71.61	$71.81	+$0.2	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 50¢	$56.5	$60.45	+$3.95	62% 1677-1046 (2723)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 39.7¢	$17.85	$20.93	+$3.08	52% 5773-5386 (11159)
US User7429CTR<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 49.7¢	$52.92	$5.85	+$0.87	55% 7805-6337 (14142)
TRCM<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.68	+$0.13	56% 3882-3112 (6994)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 49¢	$1.47	$1.4	-$0.07	55% 2195-1816 (4011)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$34,606.24

Value

$24.4K

PnL

$-6.9K

Record

67%

513-256 (769)

UpTheBluesCTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$16,397.28

Value

$15.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

01258787xy48487484545122

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$13,933.2

Value

$9.9K

PnL

$-4.0K

Record

65%

244-134 (378)

RN1CTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$3,224.64

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$3,060.67

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$385.8

Record

53%

13216-11692 (24908)

yesmate

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$4,567.7

Value

$3.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

52%

347-321 (668)

0xAA08417743cA4Ed010Ce0d27899b530E50faD98a-1772583788295

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$3,600

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$860.84

Record

68%

202-97 (299)

omnibus-076daa

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$1,908.78

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$265.02

Record

49%

18089-18501 (36590)

thestingsnakeCTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$1,756.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$351.31

Record

60%

3831-2599 (6430)

MrDouche

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$800

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$270

Record

83%

1640-345 (1985)

VeryLucky888CTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$609.6

Value

$634.09

PnL

-$56.61

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$519.48

Value

$487.58

PnL

-$31.9

Record

38%

409-667 (1076)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$1,558.54

Value

$364.85

PnL

-$86.45

Record

52%

552-500 (1052)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$227.1554.2¢-$26.43

Luisina Giovannini$169.5156¢-$60.02

RebornAthena

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$355

Value

$358.35

PnL

+$3.35

Record

53%

1984-1787 (3771)

poshposhCTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$168

Value

$279

PnL

+$111

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$238.95

Value

$257.25

PnL

+$18.3

Record

59%

29148-19878 (49026)

efntrickARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$184.6

Value

$205.75

PnL

+$21.15

Record

48%

3580-3827 (7407)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$102.644.6¢+$4.35

Lucia Bronzetti$8244.4¢+$16.8

berlinskies

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$219.99

Value

$164.03

PnL

-$55.96

Record

58%

5649-4157 (9806)

pauleta23

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$123.38

Value

$130.95

PnL

+$7.57

Record

67%

22663-11132 (33795)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$71.61

Value

$71.81

PnL

+$0.2

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

0x1111111111<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$56.5

Value

$60.45

PnL

+$3.95

Record

62%

1677-1046 (2723)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$17.85

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$3.08

Record

52%

5773-5386 (11159)

User7429CTR<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$52.92

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0.87

Record

55%

7805-6337 (14142)

TRCM<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.13

Record

56%

3882-3112 (6994)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

2195-1816 (4011)

Research grade

NeutralLucia Bronzetti at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Lucia Bronzetti

12 of 23 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lucia Bronzetti wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.