Curitiba: Luiza Fullana vs Lourdes Ayala
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Luiza Fullana (67%) · Luiza Fullana at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
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Neutral
Luiza Fullana
3
Luiza Fullana 67%
$2.3K
$35.41
78¢ → 79¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLuiza Fullana at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | Luiza Fullanaavg 78¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$39.24 | 79% 26-7 (33) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Luiza Fullanaavg 79¢ | $98.12 | $98.75 | +$0.63 | 56% 6695-5367 (12062) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Lourdes Ayalaavg 22¢ | $99.58 | $94.12 | -$4.45 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.