Pan Pacific Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Himeno Sakatsume
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Leylah Fernandez (75%) · Leylah Fernandez at 80¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Leylah Fernandez
4
Leylah Fernandez 75%
$4.3K
$10.36
79.3¢ → 80¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLeylah Fernandez at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDew | Leylah Fernandezavg 80¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | -$15.12 | 54% 260-224 (484) |
 VeryLucky888 | Leylah Fernandezavg 79.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$2.5 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
SH shiifoo | Leylah Fernandezavg 74.9¢ | $374.51 | $400 | +$22.99 | 61% 2746-1784 (4530) |
YE yesmateCTR<$100 | Himeno Sakatsumeavg 20¢ | $85.43 | $85.43 | -$0 | 52% 346-320 (666) |
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$2,567.31
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$15.12
Record
54%
260-224 (484)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,190
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
Invested
$374.51
Value
$400
PnL
+$22.99
Record
61%
2746-1784 (4530)
Invested
$85.43
Value
$85.43
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
346-320 (666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.