Pan Pacific Open: Alexandra Eala vs Mika Stojsavljevic
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Alexandra Eala (67%) · Alexandra Eala at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
Alexandra Eala
6
Alexandra Eala 67%
$1.7K
$9.57
87.9¢ → 88.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlexandra Eala at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Alexandra Ealaavg 88¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$7.67 | 49% 17082-17463 (34545) |
 VeryLucky888 | Alexandra Ealaavg 87¢ | $435.47 | $175.47 | +$4 | 58% 37023-26943 (63966) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Mika Stojsavljevicavg 13.3¢ | $111.21 | $104.25 | -$6.96 | 60% 39473-26004 (65477) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Mika Stojsavljevicavg 10.3¢ | $40.59 | $45.22 | +$4.63 | 62% 13301-8165 (21466) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 87¢ | $43.5 | $43.75 | +$0.25 | 56% 6646-5318 (11964) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Alexandra Ealaavg 88¢ | $3.62 | $3.6 | -$0.02 | 55% 1577-1301 (2878) |
Invested
$1,358.19
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$7.67
Record
49%
17082-17463 (34545)
VeryLucky888Invested
$435.47
Value
$175.47
PnL
+$4
Record
58%
37023-26943 (63966)
Invested
$111.21
Value
$104.25
PnL
-$6.96
Record
60%
39473-26004 (65477)
Invested
$40.59
Value
$45.22
PnL
+$4.63
Record
62%
13301-8165 (21466)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$43.5
Value
$43.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
56%
6646-5318 (11964)
Invested
$3.62
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.02
Record
55%
1577-1301 (2878)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.