Courmayeur: Rositsa Dencheva vs Gabriela Knutson

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Gabriela Knutson (88%) · Gabriela Knutson at 100¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 2

Rositsa Dencheva<1¢Gabriela Knutson>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Gabriela Knutson

Consensus Traders

Gabriela Knutson 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$52.7K

Combined PnL

$10.3K

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralGabriela Knutson at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Gabriela Knutson

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rositsa Dencheva0%

Gabriela Knutson100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gabriela Knutson14 traders

Total Value$33.6K

Total Shares38,530

Combined PnL+$921.16

Rositsa Dencheva2 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares39,093

Combined PnL+$9.4K

Gabriela Knutson — 88%Rositsa Dencheva — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Gabriela Knutson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGabriela Knutson 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpGabriela Knutson 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGabriela Knutson 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGabriela Knutson 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Gabriela Knutson 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Gabriela Knutsonavg 83.4¢	$19.4K	$19.9K	+$541.25	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
KK kkookkooCTR	Rositsa Denchevaavg 16.7¢	$6.5K	$15.9K	+$9.4K	51% 572-555 (1127)
UP UpTheBlues	Gabriela Knutsonavg 72¢	$5.0K	$5.5K	+$546.13	60% 40192-26830 (67022)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Gabriela Knutsonavg 83.3¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$12.45	53% 13206-11687 (24893)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 83¢	$3.6K	$3.0K	-$657.45	54% 15672-13125 (28797)
└ Gabriela Knutson leg	Gabriela Knutsonavg 83¢	$3.1K	$2.2K	-$909.42
└ Rositsa Dencheva leg	Rositsa Denchevaavg 26.9¢	$481.66	$733.63	+$251.97
TH thestingsnake	Gabriela Knutsonavg 69.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$588.77	60% 3825-2595 (6420)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Gabriela Knutsonavg 82¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$460	51% 1114-1067 (2181)
1L 1lovejump	Gabriela Knutsonavg 78.8¢	$1.3K	$769.28	-$72.43	52% 548-498 (1046)
GH ghostorder	Gabriela Knutsonavg 83¢	$937.9	$666.7	-$271.2	62% 4196-2587 (6783)
IL Illiasca	Gabriela Knutsonavg 63¢	$350	$508.33	+$158.33	65% 234-128 (362)
latvian.demon	Gabriela Knutsonavg 84¢	$170	$119.48	-$50.52	53% 580-510 (1090)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Rositsa Denchevaavg 37.1¢	$106	$117.26	+$9.83	56% 24841-19200 (44041)
KE Kev69	Gabriela Knutsonavg 92¢	$180.33	$115.65	-$64.68	54% 565-476 (1041)
HRTradingARB<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 79.2¢	$66.56	$69.34	+$2.78	55% 2171-1792 (3963)
└ Gabriela Knutson leg	Gabriela Knutsonavg 79.2¢	$52.85	$47.73	-$5.12
└ Rositsa Dencheva leg	Rositsa Denchevaavg 18.1¢	$13.71	$21.61	+$7.9
VeryLucky888<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 67¢	$75.04	$65.24	-$7.19	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 63¢	$62.37	$58.41	-$1.48	50% 3616-3583 (7199)
EF efntrick<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 68.4¢	$51.45	$52.18	+$0.72	48% 3573-3824 (7397)
PA pauleta23<$100	Gabriela Knutsonavg 81.7¢	$17.25	$18.26	+$1.01	67% 22347-10922 (33269)

RN1

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$19,406.72

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$541.25

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

kkookkooCTR

Rositsa Dencheva

Invested

$6,500

Value

$15.9K

PnL

+$9.4K

Record

51%

572-555 (1127)

UpTheBlues

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$4,975.48

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$546.13

Record

60%

40192-26830 (67022)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$3,123.27

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$12.45

Record

53%

13206-11687 (24893)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$3,627.16

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$657.45

Record

54%

15672-13125 (28797)

Both legs:

Gabriela Knutson$3,145.583¢-$909.42

Rositsa Dencheva$481.6626.9¢+$251.97

thestingsnake

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$1,450.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$588.77

Record

60%

3825-2595 (6420)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$1,640

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$460

Record

51%

1114-1067 (2181)

1lovejump

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$1,339.81

Value

$769.28

PnL

-$72.43

Record

52%

548-498 (1046)

ghostorder

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$937.9

Value

$666.7

PnL

-$271.2

Record

62%

4196-2587 (6783)

Illiasca

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$350

Value

$508.33

PnL

+$158.33

Record

65%

234-128 (362)

latvian.demon

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$170

Value

$119.48

PnL

-$50.52

Record

53%

580-510 (1090)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Rositsa Dencheva

Invested

$106

Value

$117.26

PnL

+$9.83

Record

56%

24841-19200 (44041)

Kev69

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$180.33

Value

$115.65

PnL

-$64.68

Record

54%

565-476 (1041)

HRTradingARB<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$66.56

Value

$69.34

PnL

+$2.78

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Both legs:

Gabriela Knutson$52.8579.2¢-$5.12

Rositsa Dencheva$13.7118.1¢+$7.9

VeryLucky888<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$75.04

Value

$65.24

PnL

-$7.19

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

NatoAlfista<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$62.37

Value

$58.41

PnL

-$1.48

Record

50%

3616-3583 (7199)

efntrick<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$51.45

Value

$52.18

PnL

+$0.72

Record

48%

3573-3824 (7397)

pauleta23<$100

Gabriela Knutson

Invested

$17.25

Value

$18.26

PnL

+$1.01

Record

67%

22347-10922 (33269)

Research grade

NeutralGabriela Knutson at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

Gabriela Knutson

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Gabriela Knutson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGabriela Knutson 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpGabriela Knutson 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrGabriela Knutson 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGabriela Knutson 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Gabriela Knutson 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Gabriela Knutson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.