Guangzhou Open, Qualification: Harriet Dart vs Mei Yamaguchi
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Harriet Dart (67%) · Harriet Dart at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Harriet Dart
6
Harriet Dart 67%
$15.1K
$80.99
95.1¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralHarriet Dart at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Harriet Dartavg 95.2¢ | $14.8K | $14.9K | +$55.64 | 68% 30779-14814 (45593) |
 RN1<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 81¢ | $60.81 | $72.85 | +$12.04 | 55% 43123-35478 (78601) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 82¢ | $56.82 | $66.23 | +$9.41 | 58% 31395-22700 (54095) |
EF efntrick<$100 | Harriet Dartavg 94¢ | $24.95 | $25.25 | +$0.91 | 48% 3439-3707 (7146) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Mei Yamaguchiavg 3.1¢ | $2.27 | $3.72 | +$1.44 | 53% 12096-10862 (22958) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Mei Yamaguchiavg 2¢ | $1.03 | $2.58 | +$1.55 | 58% 1363-997 (2360) |
Invested
$14,834.65
Value
$14.9K
PnL
+$55.64
Record
68%
30779-14814 (45593)
RN1<$100Invested
$60.81
Value
$72.85
PnL
+$12.04
Record
55%
43123-35478 (78601)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$56.82
Value
$66.23
PnL
+$9.41
Record
58%
31395-22700 (54095)
Invested
$24.95
Value
$25.25
PnL
+$0.91
Record
48%
3439-3707 (7146)
Invested
$2.27
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$1.44
Record
53%
12096-10862 (22958)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$1.55
Record
58%
1363-997 (2360)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.