Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Harriet Dart, while the market favors Tatiana Prozorova (51%). 12 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Guangzhou Open: Harriet Dart vs Tatiana Prozorova

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Harriet Dart (67%) · Harriet Dart at 50¢ · $79K held · ends Nov 2

Harriet Dart50¢Tatiana Prozorova50¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Harriet Dart

Consensus Traders

Harriet Dart 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$78.8K

Combined PnL

$-5.9K

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 49.5¢

-17% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralHarriet Dart at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Harriet Dart

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Tatiana Prozorova 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Harriet Dart50%

Tatiana Prozorova51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Harriet Dart12 traders

Total Value$42.4K

Total Shares76,431

Combined PnL$-5.8K

Tatiana Prozorova6 traders

Total Value$789.83

Total Shares1,646

Combined PnL-$67.3

Harriet Dart — 67%Tatiana Prozorova — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Harriet Dartavg 66¢	$28.8K	$24.1K	$-4.8K	49% 17082-17463 (34545)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Harriet Dartavg 55.8¢	$14.6K	$16.7K	+$2.1K	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 32.9¢	$5.7K	$9.1K	+$3.4K
└ Harriet Dart leg	Harriet Dartavg 55.8¢	$8.9K	$7.6K	$-1.3K
RN1ARB<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 39.1¢	$14.3K	$15.4K	+$1.1K	54% 50820-42775 (93595)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 39.1¢	$8.3K	$11.2K	+$2.9K
└ Harriet Dart leg	Harriet Dartavg 67.3¢	$6.0K	$4.2K	$-1.8K
KK KkunnCTR	Harriet Dartavg 48¢	$11.5K	$10.4K	$-1.1K	43% 199-265 (464)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 39.8¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$21.31	53% 12837-11424 (24261)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 39.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$221.31
└ Harriet Dart leg	Harriet Dartavg 65¢	$1.0K	$840	-$200
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Harriet Dartavg 67.7¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$85	51% 1087-1048 (2135)
tradecraftCTR	Harriet Dartavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$150.54	52% 5637-5262 (10899)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Harriet Dartavg 69.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11.1	55% 14758-12309 (27067)
GH ghostorderCTR	Harriet Dartavg 70¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$230.24	62% 4176-2564 (6740)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Harriet Dartavg 53.9¢	$2.3K	$1.3K	+$53.69	52% 529-488 (1017)
└ Harriet Dart leg	Harriet Dartavg 53.9¢	$707.37	$649.58	-$29.56
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 42¢	$500.41	$601.43	+$83.25
SA Saber-greedCTR	Harriet Dartavg 66¢	$710.83	$716.22	+$5.39	59% 2406-1669 (4075)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Harriet Dartavg 49¢	$425.32	$412.3	-$13.02	52% 135-125 (260)
stringXX	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 47¢	$300	$309.57	+$9.57	79% 70-19 (89)
IL Illiasca	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 53¢	$700	$198.11	+$34.95	64% 230-127 (357)
0xheavy888	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 56.3¢	$119.23	$105.85	-$13.38	56% 6646-5318 (11964)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Harriet Dartavg 70¢	$107.39	$100.04	-$7.35	48% 3551-3797 (7348)
└ Tatiana Prozorova leg	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 42.4¢	$52.56	$58.91	+$6.35
└ Harriet Dart leg	Harriet Dartavg 70¢	$54.83	$41.13	-$13.71
0X 0x1111111111	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 40¢	$104	$92.3	-$11.7	63% 1650-987 (2637)
TH thestingsnake	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 54¢	$704.61	$64.8	-$83.01	60% 3737-2531 (6268)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Harriet Dartavg 43¢	$45.07	$52.39	+$7.32	57% 23972-18438 (42410)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Harriet Dartavg 43¢	$37.68	$43.81	+$6.13	62% 13301-8165 (21466)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Tatiana Prozorovaavg 40¢	$22.92	$19.2	-$3.72	50% 3521-3537 (7058)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Harriet Dartavg 64¢	$10	$9.77	-$0.23	71% 20000-8116 (28116)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Harriet Dartavg 71.7¢	$10.05	$9.74	-$0.31	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$28,842.73

Value

$24.1K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

49%

17082-17463 (34545)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$14,628.82

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$5,695.1832.9¢+$3.4K

Harriet Dart$8,933.6455.8¢$-1.3K

RN1ARB<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$14,304.49

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

50820-42775 (93595)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$8,343.0439.1¢+$2.9K

Harriet Dart$5,961.4567.3¢$-1.8K

KkunnCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$11,520

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

43%

199-265 (464)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$2,192.09

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$21.31

Record

53%

12837-11424 (24261)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$1,152.0939.8¢+$221.31

Harriet Dart$1,04065¢-$200

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$2,030

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$85

Record

51%

1087-1048 (2135)

tradecraftCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$1,660.58

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$150.54

Record

52%

5637-5262 (10899)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$1,378.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$11.1

Record

55%

14758-12309 (27067)

ghostorderCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$1,878.86

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$230.24

Record

62%

4176-2564 (6740)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$2,341.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$53.69

Record

52%

529-488 (1017)

Both legs:

Harriet Dart$707.3753.9¢-$29.56

Tatiana Prozorova$500.4142¢+$83.25

Saber-greedCTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$710.83

Value

$716.22

PnL

+$5.39

Record

59%

2406-1669 (4075)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Harriet Dart

Invested

$425.32

Value

$412.3

PnL

-$13.02

Record

52%

135-125 (260)

stringXX

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$300

Value

$309.57

PnL

+$9.57

Record

79%

70-19 (89)

Illiasca

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$700

Value

$198.11

PnL

+$34.95

Record

64%

230-127 (357)

0xheavy888

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$119.23

Value

$105.85

PnL

-$13.38

Record

56%

6646-5318 (11964)

efntrickARB<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$107.39

Value

$100.04

PnL

-$7.35

Record

48%

3551-3797 (7348)

Both legs:

Tatiana Prozorova$52.5642.4¢+$6.35

Harriet Dart$54.8370¢-$13.71

0x1111111111

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$104

Value

$92.3

PnL

-$11.7

Record

63%

1650-987 (2637)

thestingsnake

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$704.61

Value

$64.8

PnL

-$83.01

Record

60%

3737-2531 (6268)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$45.07

Value

$52.39

PnL

+$7.32

Record

57%

23972-18438 (42410)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$37.68

Value

$43.81

PnL

+$6.13

Record

62%

13301-8165 (21466)

NatoAlfista<$100

Tatiana Prozorova

Invested

$22.92

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$3.72

Record

50%

3521-3537 (7058)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$10

Value

$9.77

PnL

-$0.23

Record

71%

20000-8116 (28116)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Harriet Dart

Invested

$10.05

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$0.31

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralHarriet Dart at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Harriet Dart

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Tatiana Prozorova 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Harriet Dart wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.