Curitiba: Victoria Bosio vs Jazmin Ortenzi

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jazmin Ortenzi (71%) · Jazmin Ortenzi at 86¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 2

Victoria Bosio14¢Jazmin Ortenzi86¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Jazmin Ortenzi

Consensus Traders

Jazmin Ortenzi 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.0K

Combined PnL

$690.51

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 86¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateJazmin Ortenzi at 86%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jazmin Ortenzi

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Victoria Bosio14%

Jazmin Ortenzi86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazmin Ortenzi10 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares30,031

Combined PnL+$628.98

Victoria Bosio4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares11,890

Combined PnL+$61.53

Jazmin Ortenzi — 71%Victoria Bosio — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MR MrDouche	Jazmin Ortenziavg 81.4¢	$13.1K	$14.0K	+$895.76	81% 1463-343 (1806)
UP UpTheBlues	Jazmin Ortenziavg 81.6¢	$4.8K	$5.0K	+$251.02	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jazmin Ortenziavg 91.7¢	$5.2K	$4.5K	-$640.79	53% 13181-11666 (24847)
TH thestingsnake	Jazmin Ortenziavg 83.2¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	+$162.85	60% 3813-2585 (6398)
RN1CTR	Victoria Bosioavg 20.5¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$123.36	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
1L 1lovejump	Jazmin Ortenziavg 82.3¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$29.94	52% 544-494 (1038)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Victoria Bosioavg 8¢	$516.42	$421.37	-$95.06	50% 17407-17735 (35142)
tradecraftARB<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 78.1¢	$197.52	$198.04	+$0.52	52% 5762-5377 (11139)
└ Jazmin Ortenzi leg	Jazmin Ortenziavg 78.1¢	$159.36	$147.99	-$11.37
└ Victoria Bosio leg	Victoria Bosioavg 21¢	$38.16	$50.05	+$11.89
HRTrading	Jazmin Ortenziavg 83¢	$151.4	$154.88	+$3.48	55% 2163-1776 (3939)
poshposhCTR	Victoria Bosioavg 16.1¢	$75.32	$108.36	+$33.03	61% 8644-5579 (14223)
EF efntrick<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 86.2¢	$75.25	$65.33	-$9.92	48% 3570-3818 (7388)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 81.8¢	$41.85	$39.15	-$2.7	60% 27626-18599 (46225)
VeryLucky888<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 75¢	$53.16	$30.13	-$0.53	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
PA pauleta23<$100	Jazmin Ortenziavg 81¢	$10	$9.75	-$0.25	67% 22130-10739 (32869)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Victoria Bosioavg 15¢	$0.83	$1.02	+$0.19	54% 15474-12956 (28430)

MrDouche

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$13,062.07

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$895.76

Record

81%

1463-343 (1806)

UpTheBlues

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$4,752.31

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$251.02

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$5,188.03

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$640.79

Record

53%

13181-11666 (24847)

thestingsnake

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$2,257.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$162.85

Record

60%

3813-2585 (6398)

RN1CTR

Victoria Bosio

Invested

$1,030.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$123.36

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

1lovejump

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$1,871.53

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$29.94

Record

52%

544-494 (1038)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Victoria Bosio

Invested

$516.42

Value

$421.37

PnL

-$95.06

Record

50%

17407-17735 (35142)

tradecraftARB<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$197.52

Value

$198.04

PnL

+$0.52

Record

52%

5762-5377 (11139)

Both legs:

Jazmin Ortenzi$159.3678.1¢-$11.37

Victoria Bosio$38.1621¢+$11.89

HRTrading

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$151.4

Value

$154.88

PnL

+$3.48

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

poshposhCTR

Victoria Bosio

Invested

$75.32

Value

$108.36

PnL

+$33.03

Record

61%

8644-5579 (14223)

efntrick<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$75.25

Value

$65.33

PnL

-$9.92

Record

48%

3570-3818 (7388)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$41.85

Value

$39.15

PnL

-$2.7

Record

60%

27626-18599 (46225)

VeryLucky888<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$53.16

Value

$30.13

PnL

-$0.53

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

pauleta23<$100

Jazmin Ortenzi

Invested

$10

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

67%

22130-10739 (32869)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Victoria Bosio

Invested

$0.83

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

15474-12956 (28430)

Research grade

Research candidateJazmin Ortenzi at 86%

Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Jazmin Ortenzi

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jazmin Ortenzi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.